Thursday, December 13, 2012

Unemployment Claims Fall

Ben Bernanke doing his magic: Part 1 falling unemployment claims, Part 2 accelerating price inflation.

In the week ending December 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised average of 408,500, reports the Department of Labor.

Here is a chart via Calculated Risk that shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

The recent sharp increase in the 4 week average was due to Hurricane Sandy as claims increased significantly in NY, NJ and other impacted areas. That is now working its way out of the numbers.


  1. Can you be a bit more specific, please? What does "accelerating price inflation" entail? "Price inflation" at this point is right at the target set by the Federal Reserve, at 2% measured by the PCE index (yes, this INCLUDES food and energy). The Fed expects "price inflation" a bit below 2% in 2013. What do YOU expect? Will it accelerate into double-digits as measured by the PCE index? Please enlighten your readers beyond platitudes which can mean anything.

    1. Deafening silence, still no forecast...

      Today's CPI-U report:
      For everybody believing that the CPI somehow ignores food and energy, it does not.
      - Prices falling (INCLUDING food and energy) month-to-month. "Price inflation" of 1.8% since Dec'11
      - Food prices up 1.8% since Dec'11.
      - Energy prices down 4.1% since last month, Energy prices up only 0.3% since Dec'11.

      Of course core inflation (EXCLUDING food and energy) is a bit higher, 1.9% since Dec'11. But reporting that is just evil of course. Why no report and explanation on DECLINING "price inflation" at the moment. Where is the impact of all this evil, evil printing?? Is it all just a big government conspiracy? My gas station has regular for 3.07 a gallon, are they in on it to make Obama look good?