Friday, December 7, 2012

Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.7%: Inside the Numbers

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, theBureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning.

Employment increased in retail trade, professional and business services, and health care.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.2 percent), adult
women (7.0 percent), teenagers (23.5 percent), whites (6.8 percent), and Hispanics (10.0
percent) showed little or no change in November. The unemployment rate for blacks (13.2
percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.4 percent (not
seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 63.6 percent
in November, offsetting an increase of the same amount in October. Total employment was
about unchanged in November, following a combined increase of 1.3 million over the prior
2 months. The employment-population ratio, at 58.7 percent, changed little
in November.

You are going to find people hammering away at the fact that part of the decline in the unemployment rate is a result of a climb in people giving up the search for work. But this isn't the dire situation some would have you believe The drop in those searching for work includes those planning to go to school and retirees, who stay on the public dole for as long as they can. Once payments run out, or they are forced off unemployment insurance, they suddenly report they have given up looking for work, when they weren't really looking in the first place. If anything, the unemployment number, because of these "never intended to work" people, was higher than it should have been recorded in the first place, largely because the advantage in unemployment benefits is if you pretend to be looking for work.  Those out of work 52 or more weeks and still looking: 3.39 million in Nov, was 4.05 million a year ago and 4.48 million two years ago.

Bottom line: The economy is in a Fed manipulated recovery. Next stop: Accelerating price inflation in 2013.

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