Thursday, April 25, 2013

It's Hillary and Rand with the Early Presidential Race Leads in NH

Public Policy Polling reports:

PPP's new poll of New Hampshire Republicans about 2016 finds momentum on Rand Paul's side. He leads the potential field with 28% to 25% for Marco Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% each for Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal.
Paul has seen a huge increase in his support from when PPP last looked at New Hampshire in November, from 4% then to his current 28% standing. Also on the rise is Rubio who's gone up 11 points from 14% to 25%. On the down swing are Christie who's dropped 7 points from 21% and the lead then to 14% and 3rd place now, Bush who's dropped 4 points from 11% to 7%, and Ryan who's dropped 3 points from 10% to 7%.
Paul is benefiting from his appeal to independent voters. Rubio leads him 29/26 among voters who are actually registered as Republicans, but Paul's at 32% with independents to 19% for Christie and 17% for Rubio. Paul also leads Rubio with men (33/22) and younger voters (35/26), while Rubio has the upper hand with women (27/22) and seniors (35/14).
On the Democratic side desire for Hillary Clinton to be the party nominee next year has just increased even further from November. Then 60% of Democrats supported her, now that's up to 68% who want her as their candidate to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Deval Patrick with nobody else over 1%. Clinton has over 50% support from men and women, young, middle aged, and old voters, 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' voters, and both Democrats and independents.
If Clinton doesn't run there's 44% support for Biden, followed by Warren at 12% and Patrick and Cuomo at 9% with no one else over 2%. If Clinton and Biden both sit it out 30% of Democrats say they don't know who they would want as their candidate with Cuomo at 23%, Warren at 22%, Patrick at 17%, Kirsten Gillibrand at 4%, Martin O'Malley at 2%, and Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner each at 1%.
Clinton's so strong in New Hampshire that early indications are she could take it off the board as a swing state in the general election if she runs. She leads Paul 52/41 and Rubio 52/38 in hypothetical match ups, holding a double digit lead with independents and getting double digit support from Republicans in both potential match ups.
Full results here

(ht John Duncan)


  1. Is Hilary running? pope/catholic, bears/woods etc.
    Rubio will fade once Castro finally is dragged down through a crack in the earth.

  2. hilary is going to be the next president.

    1. Not necessarily, but the republicans should keep him on ice for a while longer - but Empress or King, either way it going to be very unpleasant who isn't in the elite.

  3. The other day I saw a news story of Hillary Clinton starting up her pre-campaign bid. The "Idiot News" put up as her GOP adversaries as Rubio, Christie, and J. Bush. In no way, would they ever consider to put up Paul. Which makes me wonder why Rand even bothers playing ball with the neocons. They don't like him; they're going to go against him no matter what. Too close to his dad.

    1. He's not after the neocons who he will never win he's after their viewers/listeners/readers who actually vote.

      If he comes off as cordial and frames the message in a way they can understand then they're going to 'like' him and thus the matrix of the talking head and their hold on the casual listener or viewer is broken.

    2. Just to add this is something Robert readers need to understand a bit better.

      He's not getting into bed with neocons. He's smart enough to know those with an agenda will never be won over and will support some other tool but you'll notice Hannity and Levin don't trash him constantly because he's one of the most popular Republicans in America. They could do it to Ron because the GOP base viewed him differently and his numbers were negative but not to Rand who's numbers are sky high.

      Rand has been able to build an image and a profile of himself that the GOP base is warming to and so the propagandists who actually have an audience have to be nice. The term 'senator' also conveys an immediate obedience to politeness as opposed to 'congressman'.

      The tools at the loss making Weekly Standard and Commentary Magazine have so much problems trashing him and will continue to do so; their operations don't rely on any audience but the ad dollars of defense contractors or the philanthropy of some billionaire who seeks "influence"

  4. I know Rand Paul is deeply flawed, but can you honestly say you'd rather have Rubio or Clinton? I just can't seem to get that mad at Rand. Too much respect for his father I guess.

    1. ...which is, in a nutshell, the whole point about all of the constant harping and pointing out of actions taken by Rand: Rand Paul is not at all like his dad, except for the whole be-a-doctor-then-go-into-politics thing.

      Judge Rand Paul by his own, unrepentantly "conservative" merits.

      Just keep in mind that in this (US) country, "conservative" just means "support whatever the (Social) Democrats did a generation ago."