Wednesday, May 28, 2014

The Phony Claim That 97% of Scientists Agree on Global Warming

By Joseph Bast and Roy Spencer

Last week Secretary of State John Kerry warned graduating students at Boston College of the "crippling consequences" of climate change. "Ninety-seven percent of the world's scientists," he added, "tell us this is urgent."

Where did Mr. Kerry get the 97% figure? Perhaps from his boss, President Obama, who tweeted on May 16 that "Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous." Or maybe from NASA, which posted (in more measured language) on its website, "Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities."

Yet the assertion that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is a man-made, urgent problem is a fiction. The so-called consensus comes from a handful of surveys and abstract-counting exercises that have been contradicted by more reliable research.

One frequently cited source for the consensus is a 2004 opinion essay published in Science magazine by Naomi Oreskes, a science historian now at Harvard. She claimed to have examined abstracts of 928 articles published in scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and found that 75% supported the view that human activities are responsible for most of the observed warming over the previous 50 years while none directly dissented.

Ms. Oreskes's definition of consensus covered "man-made" but left out "dangerous"—and scores of articles by prominent scientists such as Richard Lindzen, John Christy, Sherwood Idso and Patrick Michaels, who question the consensus, were excluded. The methodology is also flawed. A study published earlier this year in Nature noted that abstracts of academic papers often contain claims that aren't substantiated in the papers.

Another widely cited source for the consensus view is a 2009 article in "Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union" by Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, a student at the University of Illinois, and her master's thesis adviser Peter Doran. It reported the results of a two-question online survey of selected scientists. Mr. Doran and Ms. Zimmerman claimed "97 percent of climate scientists agree" that global temperatures have risen and that humans are a significant contributing factor.

The survey's questions don't reveal much of interest. Most scientists who are skeptical of catastrophic global warming nevertheless would answer "yes" to both questions. The survey was silent on whether the human impact is large enough to constitute a problem. Nor did it include solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists or astronomers, who are the scientists most likely to be aware of natural causes of climate change.

The "97 percent" figure in the Zimmerman/Doran survey represents the views of only 79 respondents who listed climate science as an area of expertise and said they published more than half of their recent peer-reviewed papers on climate change. Seventy-nine scientists—of the 3,146 who responded to the survey—does not a consensus make.

Read the rest here.

20 comments:

  1. Thankfully we have the Koch Bros to set the record set on the environment.

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    1. it's wereWolf season! As a heartless vampire I can't wait to dip my fangs in you wolfie :)

      Maybe then I'll learn how to be charitable with other people's money after getting a taste of your collectivist blood.

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    2. Oh, yeah, well I say it's duck season and I say, fire! :P

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  2. I'm about 97% sure these people are full of crap.

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  3. I'm so very tired of this idiotic scam, but I suppose it will never go away.

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  4. I used to be a big believer in man made global warming, but I've grown more skeptical over the past few years... on the radio this morning on NPR in Boston they were talking to some science person who said that global warming would actually cause (for some reason) hurricanes to decrease! So apparently if there is a bad hurricane year it is because of global warming/climate change, but if it is a quiet year they can now blame it on global warming/climate change as well!

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    1. These idiots NEVER fooled me. I knew they were full of shit from the beginning. Do yourself a favor and NEVER believe ANYONE when it calls for more government. It's ALWAYS a scam.

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    2. Keep on educating yourself and eventually you'll go from "more skeptical" to "totally disgusted" as you realize there is literally zero scientific evidence for man-made global warming.

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    3. @Anon 1:03

      This is precisely why I just threw my hands up a while ago and said, "so be it." If you live every day toward Christ, then there's no need to worry about tomorrow. I suppose a similar mentality would be to live every day to its fullest, for the secular folks. Either way, no one is guaranteed tomorrow. So why carry around the baggage of regret that so many want to pile on your back?

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  5. those without the wsj subscription, but really everyone interrested, can and should check out david friedmans and richard tols expose on the 97% claims
    >http://richardtol.blogspot.sk/2013/08/open-letter-to-vice-chancellor-of.html?wref=bif
    >http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.sk/2014/02/a-climate-falsehood-you-can-check-for.html
    there you will also find numerous links to related papers and data

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  6. Most non-climate scientists will agree (anonymously) that global warming is due to changes in the sun. But, since they get money from the government they will "toe the line" in the media.

    When your paycheck requires government approval, most will choose cash over principle.

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    1. "When your paycheck requires government approval, most will choose cash over principle."

      Bingo Rick. This is why I oppose taxation itself. ANYTHING spent with "public" money will ALWAYS end of loaded with corruption.

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    2. You're crazy Rick. I'm sure the fact that left-wing politicians are handing out gobs of money to any scientist willing to say that the Earth is going to be destroyed unless we embrace socialism has NOTHING to do with the fact that the vast majority of scientists are discovering that the Earth is going to be destroyed unless we embrace socialism.

      It's all just a remarkable coincidence!

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    3. It's called CLIMATE DISRUPTION! Get with the program! CLIMATE DISRUPTION means that if it gets much colder, or warmer, or wetter, or drier, or whathefukever it can be blamed on human activity.

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    4. Matt M-

      How DARE you imply that government funded scientists would "massage" the data to "prove" global warming. Shit, I mean CLIMATE DISRUPTION.

      These scientists are devoted to finding the truth, and if the data won't support their hypotheses...well, that's YOUR problem. Truth be damned.

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  7. Claims both for and against anthropogenic global warming are unfalsifiable, and the positive case justifies open-ended initiation of force. That is why this issue will bedevil us for the rest of our lives. Pace yourselves accordingly.

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    1. A few more cold winters will change the narrative.

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  8. CLIMATE DISRUPTION is the new meme. Look for it--- you will be able to see that the author that uses it is full of shit.

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