Friday, June 20, 2014

The Developing Price Inflation Picture

Keep an eye on the CPI services sector.

Derrick Wulf writes:

One of the highlights of an otherwise uneventful press conference by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen earlier this week was her carefree dismissal of recent inflation gains as mere “noise.” This was significant for two reasons: first, it implied a level of forecasting confidence that seems wholly inconsistent with the “data-dependent” policy approach we have been told to expect from the Fed, and second, it was an entirely inaccurate characterization of the data. Much of the recent increase in CPI has in fact come from traditionally stable categories such as services, which have posted annualized three and six month gains of more than 3% for several months now, while weakness has actually come from the more volatile components such as “commodities less food”. The official BLS release for May even characterized the price increases as “broad based,” all of which strongly suggests there’s something more than mere noise behind these figures.

1 comment:

  1. As you've been saying for years WHEN (not IF) inflation in prices begins to explode the government and Federal Reserve will be blindsided.

    Thankfully there is a long, deep and comprehensive paper...uh, electron trail of the failed promises of the socialist Keynesians and the detailed predictions by Rothbardian economists of what WILL happen when their house of Fiat cards falls apart.

    I can't wait until I turn on the TV and see your handsome face explaining exactly why the economy is in tatters and how it can be fixed! (hint- get the government out of the economy, cut taxes and spending and repeal 99.9% of the government and radically decentralize power)