Sunday, September 14, 2014

McConnell’s Path to Re-election Is Looking More Assured

Nate Cohn writes at NYT:
Many Democrats considered Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, deeply vulnerable at the beginning of the year. The polls showed a tight race in Kentucky, with his Democratic opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes, often in the lead. His approval and favorability ratings were low, often beneath 40 percent.

But if there is any plausibly competitive state where we have now have a clear sense of a Senate race, it is Kentucky. A recent set of diverse and high-quality nonpartisan polls and the underlying fundamentals are all in alignment: Mr. McConnell has a clear advantage.

Every survey over the last month shows Mr. McConnell ahead by more than four points, including two traditional live-interview surveys that contacted voters via a cellphones, one Internet panel survey and a nonpartisan automated poll that contacted voters without a landline by means of an online panel.

On average, Mr. McConnell leads by five points, and Leo, The Upshot’s Senate election forecasting model, now gives him a 93 percent chance of winning re-election.

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