Economists at the Atlanta Fed took a look at the data and reached these conclusions:
The most influential factor has been the changing distribution of the population . The fact that a greater portion of Americans are retirement age now than in 2007 accounts for about 1.7 percentage points of the decline. At the same time, older Americans are more likely to be working than in the past, a trend that has been putting upward pressure on LFPR for some time. All else being equal, if those older than 60 were just as likely to retire as they were in 2007, LFPR would be about 1.0 percentage point lower than it is today.
Other factors bringing down the overall LFPR include an increased incidence of people saying they are unable to work as a result of disability or illness , increased school attendance among the young , and decreased participation among individuals 25–54—the age group with the greatest attachment to the labor force (click on "Focus on Prime Working-Age Individuals").
The government. Full stop.
ReplyDelete"Economists at the Atlanta Fed..."?! Really?! While this report fits nicely with EPJ's general message, its hard to take the FED seriously on anything let alone employment numbers. The Black Market might be a better topic for study.
ReplyDeleteBut whatever the reasons, it does highlight the fact that fewer and fewer productive people are supporting more and more nonproductive people. That trend will certainly accelerate
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