I have made clear in the EPJ Daily Alert that the downturn in oil prices would cause an increase in unemployment in oil sector states BUT that, and this is important, this is not an indication of a new downturn of the overall economy. We are in the boom phase of the boom-bust business cycle.
What is going on in the oil sector is just a sector related problem.
In March, Texas saw a decline of 25,400 jobs, Oklahoma(down 12,900 and North Dakota lost 3,000 jobs, a significant cut in such a small state. The losses were generally because of cuts in the oil sector.
-RW
"...and this is important, this is not an indication of a new downturn of the overall economy..."
ReplyDeleteSounds like the Monty Python line, 'Tis merely a flesh wound.'
We'll see what the carryover from the oil slump is. My sense is that there is lots of pain and suffering going on in the background from ugly derivatives losses -- and uncollectible derivatives gains -- that is being hidden from us. The articles from elsewhere this week on the huge spike in reverse repurchases since Dec. -- much higher than the levels in fall '08 -- hint that ugliness is merely being hidden from us, for now.