Friday, July 24, 2015

BREAKING: Federal Reserve Released Staff Projections, "in Error"....

....the projections suggest 1 rate hike before year end; and 4 hikes  in 2016, with end 2016 Fed Funds rate of  1.26%.

The current Fed Funds target rate is 0.0% to 0.25%, with the current effective Fed Funds rate at 0.13%,

Here is a statement from  the Fed on the "error':
Press Release

Release Date: July 24, 2015

For immediate release
Economic projections prepared by Federal Reserve Board staff as background for the June 16-17, 2015, meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were inadvertently included in a computer file posted to the Board's public website on June 29. Because the information has already been released, the Federal Reserve is today providing general public notification and making those projections more easily accessible on our website within the FRB/US model package (ZIP) data folder.

Approximately every three months, Federal Reserve Board staff update and publish on the Board's website a package of computer code of the Board staff's FRB/US model of the U.S. economy, including a set of illustrative economic projections based only on publicly available information. On June 29, an updated package of code was posted that inadvertently included three files containing staff economic forecasts that are confidential FOMC information. Two files contained charts of the staff's projections for economic variables such as the unemployment rate, the core inflation rate, and gross domestic product growth as well as the staff's assumption for the path of the federal funds rate target selected by the FOMC. Another file contained computer code used to generate a table displaying staff economic projections.

The projections that were inadvertently released are staff projections that do not incorporate policymakers' views, including their views on monetary policy. Policymaker views were set forth in the monetary policy statement and projection materials released on June 17 and in the minutes of the June FOMC meeting and the Summary of Economic Projections published on July 8.

Consistent with the procedures in the FOMC's Program for Security of FOMC Information, this matter has been referred to the Board's Inspector General.


Via Bloomberg:

*FED STAFF PROJECTIONS SEE GDP 2.31% 2015, 2.38% 2016


These are the key projections as revealed in the leaked file (ZIP file can be found here).


  1. 12:40 pm EST and no word of this on Drudge or CNBC? Weird. In my opinion, this was no accident. Trial ballooning, jawboning, lieboning, glitchboning, call it whatever you want. We're deep down the rabbit hole...

  2. These clowns can't tell you what is going on today less 2017

  3. They can't manage press releases, but they can manage the economy...

    1. That is the gem of the day.

    2. The problem in this thinking is that there's any relationship between PR management and economic governance skills.

      Steve Jobs was a terrible boss.
      Abraham Lincoln was a terrible military executive.
      Nikola Tesla was a terrible promoter.

      People can be terrible at something and good at something else.

    3. "The problem in this thinking is that there's any relationship between PR management and economic governance skills."

      Let's say I granted you that argument for the sake of discussion.(and I'm not, specifically the implication that the Fed just sucks at PR management but is "ok" with economic management)

      Why would it not apply equally to the notion that an entity that is "managing" the economy via just one or two metrics(interest rates/money supply) would obviously suffer the same fate as you described above?

      In other words, how can you argue that the Fed can "manage" an economy effectively by simply manipulating one or two aspects of it when it is comprised on an unquantifiable number of aspects with incredible complexity?

      Your own argument turned in on itself shows the folly of Fed manipulation.

      Now, as to the final's not just that the Fed sucks at PR management, but it's quite obvious that it sucks at "managing" the economy as well....and sometimes there IS indication of general dysfunction within a larger picture when an organization sucks in one area.(like PR)

      I can also argue that Steve Jobs wasn't a terrible boss and Lincoln wasn't a terrible military executive quite easily....but you'd have a hard time arguing that the Fed doesn't suck at its job