Even the Fed's Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate is Ticking Higher

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank reports;

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

June 2015

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for June was an annualized 2.1 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for June was 2.8 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.8 percent.

The tables below present data on the Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate and, for comparison, the overall PCE inflation and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy. The tables give annualized one-month, six-month and 12-month inflation rates.

One-month PCE inflation, annual rate

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 PCE -5.5 2.0 2.7 0.5 3.8 2.8 PCE excluding food & energy 0.6 1.6 2.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 Trimmed Mean PCE 0.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.1

Six-month PCE inflation, annual rate

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 PCE -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 1.0 PCE excluding food & energy 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 Trimmed Mean PCE 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9

12-month PCE inflation

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 PCE 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 PCE excluding food & energy 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Trimmed Mean PCE 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7

NOTE: These data are subject to revision.

• Components included and excluded from this month's Trimmed Mean 

The following chart plots the evolution of the distribution of price increases in the monthly component data over the past year. The chart shows the percentage of components each month, weighted by their shares in total spending, for which prices grew between 0 and 2 percent (at an annual rate); between 2 and 3 percent; between 3 and 5 percent; between 5 and 10 percent; and more than 10 percent.

• Chart data 

 RW  Note: Notice the growing number of prices now climbing between 3-5% and 5-10%.