The Fed is creating a very unstable situation, but that doesn't mean the up indicators are bogus. The Fed has printed a tremendous amount of money since the 2008 financial crisis and that has resulted in the US moving from a bust phase to a boom phase. I am not forecasting that the boom phase will continue, just that we have been in one, as evidenced by the climb in the stock market since 2008 and the improvement in unemployment since 2009.
Gallup's U.S. Job Creation Index registered +32 for the fourth consecutive month in August. This remains the highest score Gallup has recorded since it began to measure employees' perceptions of job creation at their workplaces in early 2008.
And, if for some reason you think employment numbers are distorted beyond recognition, checkout auto sales, since the financial crisis.
If you are, however, a perma-bear and still don't believe that it is a BOOM AND BUST cycle, you can rest assured, I'm sure, that there is an Austrian shallow out there somewhere making the case that auto manufacturers are lying to the SEC about their sales.
-RW
Subprime auto loans.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-13/dont-look-now-subprime-auto-bubble-may-be-bursting
I just think the boom has been going on for like 60 years. We've never had a real correction like the Great Depression. It was a possibility a lot of times, but the Central Bank always blew more air into the bubble.
ReplyDeleteArent the unemployment figures bogus? The unemployable's arent counted.
ReplyDeleteIsnt it when the boom phase is at its peak that the bubble pops? The doomsayers are saying that all economic indicators are at their historical peak.