Tuesday, June 7, 2016

S&P 500 Heads for 10-Month High

The S&P 500 Index is edging toward the highest close since July 2015.

The U.S. equity benchmark has now climbed to within 0.7 percent of its all-time high.

This is not what a recession looks like.


(via Bloomberg)


  1. Bob,

    I have enjoyed reading your blog for several years now and agree with you on the wide majority of issues, but I find it interesting that you have seemingly deliberately not posted (on an economics blog) a single post recapping both the April or May job reports. The U.S. govt payrolls number is probably viewed as the most important economic indicator in the mainstream.

    It's interesting because both of these reports were huge misses. In April the expectation was 200k jobs, we only got 160k (now revised down to 123k). In May, 160k jobs were expected and we only got 38k (the biggest miss in 5 years!) In fact, you have to go all the way back to April 1 to find a post about a jobs report(http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2016/04/the-jobs-keep-on-coming.html), conveniently when the number beat (215k actual vs 205k estimate). It would appear that if the numbers don't agree w/ your "Austrian-lite" / "this is not what a recession looks like" narrative then you simply ignore posting the numbers altogether.

    I would expect in the future that even if the numbers are misses you would at least acknowledge them and just mention about how you believe that one number doesn't make a trend - instead of simply ignoring them.

    1. I covered the reports extensively in the EPJ Daily Alert: http://goo.gl/xc1h9R

      An unsolicited tweet (https://goo.gl/1uKJkv) reported on my coverage in the ALERT: "a sensible discussion I had not seen anywhere else and excellent discussion on what it likely portend."

    2. IMO, screaming BOOM on every good number on your free site then hiding the ball on your explanation of the poor jobs report behind your paywall isn't "cowardice" as another commenter noted previously, it's just kinda lame. Why not put it all behind the paywall?

    3. The point is that here at EPJ I am only attempting to provide an overview of my thinking so that the more interested subscribe to the ALERT.

      When it comes to the more detailed and unique analysis, why should I put that out for free, especially given the prevalence of ad blockers these days?

      My point should be clear though, I do not believe we are in a recession---noyt even close. That is the only point I am making here. It is a marketing method.

      You are free to stick with my overview, subscribe to the ALERT or go read some Austrian-lite who thinks the world is going to end tomorrow.

    4. I said, "why not put it all behind a paywall" not "put it out for free." Yet, you do seem to want to say some controversial things for free (your overview, I guess) then address anything that counters your narrative for a fee. EPJ is just a "teaser" site. Got it.

  2. i'm sure that june rate hike must be right around the corner then, yes ?

  3. The stock market price level has been divorced from the real economy for years. Will you acknowledge that corporate earnings peaked and are trending down?

    That is not what a boom looks like.