Friday, March 17, 2017

U.S. Leading Economic Index Reaches Highest Level in a Decade

The Conference Board said its leading economic index rose 0.6% in February — the third straight gain of that magnitude — to reach its highest level in more than a decade.

The leading economic index is constructed using 10 components, including the new-orders gauge of a manufacturing purchasing managers index and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury and federal-funds rate.

Specifically, the ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Indexfor the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The only indicator down in February was building permits.

Sorry Austrian-lites, this is nowhere near what a recession looks like.



  1. Very interesting in light of your next post about "edgy" data. I'm sure Rubin would like the "rubes" to believe this is just starting now. Quick Fed, raise those rates three more times! To quote Dick Morris again, this is probably just some more "illusion of a boom, where there really isn't one..."

  2. Not much of a boom. Industrial production peaked in late 2014. GDP barely 1%. Raise rates more and see what happens.

    Sure, lots to celebrate. /Sarc

  3. I know of so many great job openings in Los Angeles, its crazy!

    1. I am not surprised given the cost to live there and what employers are willing to pay when comparing both to most of the nation.