Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Was Bitcoin in a Super Bubble?

With the price of Bitcoin down by approx. 78% from its all-time peak of $19,783, hit on December 17, 2017. it is a good time to consider whether Bitcoin was in a super bubble.

Last year in early December, roughly two weeks before the $19,783 price peak, I held the view that Bitcoin was in a super bubble. And so I put out a video discussing what constitutes a bubble and a super bubble and set some parameters of how to declare something a bubble or a super bubble.

Below is that video.

So at this point, Bitcoin has not been down long enough to declare it a super bubble, but a collapse of 78% means that if it doesn't hit a new peak above $19,783 by late December 17, 2022, it should be declared that Bitcoin was in a super bubble by the standards I set.

Indeed, I suspect that Bitcoin will be proven not only to have been in a super bubble but also a permanent bubble.


1 comment:

  1. Bitcoin has had at least two drops (in percent) greater than the current drop (so far), in 2011 and 2013. Who can say for sure that it will not rise again?