We Are Everywhere

At the "Strategies For Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference" last week, I ran into a New York City-based private equity manager who is an ALERT subscriber. He sent along the below email as a follow-up:

Hi Bob, 

As a blog/alert reader it was a pleasure meeting you at the Hoover Monetary Conference. As I’m sure you can relate, I couldn’t help but have the feeling of being “behind enemy lines”. 

The greatest insight to me is that the market does not understand that there is no omniscience at all among these folks. Meeting/seeing them in person adds a perspective of doubt that (fortunately for them) does not show through strongly in press/video media.

As a matter of fact, they are literally sitting around conjuring theories to prescribe to headlines of the day (for example avg inflation targeting). We have truly been living in a golden age of central bankers. I agree with you that inflation is probably the most under-appreciated risk today but confidence in CBs breaking is perhaps even greater. The problem is that it’s hard to say if this confidence will break in one month or in ten years. But hearing folks like Williams speak reminds me to keep this risk in the back on my mind at all times. 

If you are ever in nyc and would like to get a coffee and discuss markets/economy please do  not hesitate to reach out! 

Best regards,

Charlie