Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Mysterious Math: Trillions of Dollars of Economic Losses and Dr. Fauci

Anthony Fauci
Some sound commentary from Sundance at The Last Refuge:
Let me say up front, there’s something very sketchy about the wordy explanations provided by CDC Director Dr. Fauci...
The concept of “flattening” the virus curve; the presumptive reason for social distancing; is based on a theory to extend the spread of COVID-19 to a lesser incident rate over a longer duration, thereby lessening the burden on the U.S. healthcare system.  Hence, ‘flatten’ the spike in infections.

Put another way: “Flattening” means the same number of people eventually contract the virus, only they do so over a longer period of time, and the healthcare system can treat everyone because the numbers do not rise to level where the system is overloaded.  In theory that seems to make sense.

However, no-one is asking: what is the current stress level on the healthcare system right now?  Where are we in that capacity?… and what is normal capacity level during a high-level flu outbreak?… and Where are we when compared against that baseline?

The premise to extend the virus duration in an effort to lower the infection rate and spread the virus over a longer period of time needs to measured against: (a) where the healthcare system is at any given moment; and (b) under traditional high-flu seasons where are we during those historic events...

If the viral spread never exceeds the capacity of the healthcare system to deal with it, he can claim success.  Look, our flattened curve worked.

However, when contrast against flu outbreaks, no-one knows what the COVID-19 capacity threshold is within the healthcare system.  There’s no way to disprove Fauci’s theory.

Given the nature of the baseline for overall U.S. sanitation and hygiene, which is significantly higher than Italy, S-Korea and China; and given the higher standards of food safety (U.S. is the world leader); again significantly higher than Italy, S-Korea and China; and given the nature of the U.S. healthcare system (more capacity per person); is it really a fair comparison to overlay a COVID-19 outbreak, without also overlaying a traditional flu outbreak?

Any theory that cannot be scientifically tested; and is simultaneously self-fulfilling; is, by its nature, a false theory.

This is not to say that Dr. Anthony Fauci is intentionally misleading anyone; however, it is absolutely true that no-one will be able to quantify if trillions of dollars of economic wealth lost; and trillions more in economic activity lost; and trillions more in deficit spending; and that might all be done just to follow the fantastical whims of a doctor who is directing the mitigation of an ordinary flu-virus/season, and appears to be quite full of his own sense of self-importance.
Also see: The Flaky "Flatten the Curve" Policy Experts' Mantra



  1. Doesn't the so-called flattening theory require permanent social distancing? Further, are medical privacy laws going to prevent us from ever learning the actual symptoms endured by the 99.2% of a population that tests positive for the virus and does not die?

  2. Isn't the flattening theory just a way for the state to (forcibly) ration limited hospital space, the growth of which the state has spent years restricting?

    1. That's how I see it. All the while, the virus just lurks out there with "social distance" preventing a mass all-at-once herd inoculation. I don't see how this "social distance" diktat ends anytime soon. There are allegedly 54 positive tests in Michigan for 10 million residents. What if there are 2,500 in three weeks? Can we go to the bar then? Are we ever going to hear what symptoms these 54 people have suffered, if any?


  3. I do not know how to pronounce Fauci but have been pronouncing it Foochee, which is the pronunciation of a Spanish (slang?) word that means stinky.

  4. Part of the reason for the system overload is how COVID-19 has been portrayed to the public by the media and government. People already over seek medical attention – going to their doctor or the emergency room for a cold or mild flu. Now we have a panic that is causing more system overload.

  5. Great observations regarding comparing this 2020 Covid season to normal seasonal ICU loads. I have two doctor sons. They say the ICU always operates near capacity & this year is about the same as prior years. The capacity "crisis" is always just around the corner. Meanwhile, their pay has been cut because all of their elective procedures have been postponed so the hospital can brace for the coming crisis. But hospital admin salaries have not been cut.