Monday, April 6, 2020

The Curve is Starting to Bend; The Doubling Time of Coronavirus Deaths

Princeton University scientist Sam Wang observes that the number of days for COVID-19 deaths to double is climbing. And that it now takes 3.7 days for deaths to double in the US.

This is a positive, since a climb in the number of days for deaths to double means the death rate is slowing.



  1. Hopefully this is good data, but I'd like to see more public discussion about how a death gets recorded as a "COVID death." It is entirely possible that there is a bias -- due to strained resources, official guidelines (such as Tom DiLorenzo circulated as coming out of the CDC), or warped incentives -- to liberally record a death as a "COVID death" when it is not really, or without any certainty. As someone else noted, 'flu-related deaths have never received the same scrutiny as COVID-related deaths, so the comparative death rates could be apples and oranges, never mind that the recorded COVID deaths could be too high.

    1. AFAIK nobody even bothered to demonstrate that Koch principles are satisfied for COVID-19...