Public Policy Polling: Ron Paul in the Lead

The first post-Christmas poll is out and it was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a group I consider the most accurate pollsters in the country. PPP writes:

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits....

Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He's gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls. His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54 and only 32% of likely voters think that he has strong principles to 45% who believe he does not. Once the darling of Tea Party voters in the state, he's now slipped to third with that group behind Bachmann and Paul. There's not much reason to think Gingrich can return to his former strong standing in the state in the final week.

Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum continue to all be clustered right around 10%. Santorum actually has the best favorability numbers of any of the candidates at +27 (56/29). He's also the most frequent second choice of voters at 14%. Whether he can translate any of this into a top 3 finish remains to be seen, but he's someone who would seem to have the potential to grow his support in the final week.

One thing that's hurt Santorum's ability to really make a move is that the Evangelical vote is incredibly fragmented with 6 different candidates getting between 12 and 21%. Paul actually leads the way with that group at 21% to 16% for Romney and Bachmann, 15% for Santorum, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Perry....

Iowa looks like a 2 person race between Paul and Romney as the campaign enters its final week. If Paul can really change the electorate by turning out all these young people and independents who don't usually vote in Republican caucuses, he'll win. If turnout ends up looking a little bit more traditional, Romney will probably prevail.

The full PPP results are here.

Newt Crashing: It's Down to Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in Iowa

Here's the latest tweet from the very accurate polling firm Public Policy Polling:

The Sunday interviews are going to determine our leader in Iowa...very close between Romney and Paul. Newt likely down to 3rd.

(htJM)

HOT: Gingrich and Ron Paul Neck and Neck; Pollster Likens Paul Move to Obama's 2008 Rise

Public Policy Polling is reporting that Newt Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Ron Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%. In their recent Iowa poll.

This is extremely significant because of the polling organization that is reporting these results. I have long stated that Public Policy Polling is the best in the business.

This is what I wrote about them in May, after they polled on a NYC special election.

Public Policy Polling, which regularly picks up trends before most other polling organizations, believes that the recent victory of a Democrat in a special district election New York is significant.

They were a week ahead of all other polling organizations in detecting the shift toward Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts in his 2010 Senate win against Martha Coakley. Here's what I wrote in January 2010:

Earlier I highlighted the polling results of Public Policy Polling that show Republican Scott Brown leading Martha Coakley 48-47.

At the same time, a Rasmussen Reports poll, released last week, shows Democrat Martha Coakley leading Republican challenger Scott Brown by nine points. A Boston Globe poll puts Coakley up by 17 points. What's going on?

In other words, they are at the top of their game,which means if you are a Ron Paul supporter, you are going to love what PPP has to say about Iowa polling trends (My bold)

Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:

-59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18. But among the 41% of likely voters who are 'new' for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%. Paul is doing a good job of bringing out folks who haven't done this before.

-He's also very strong with young voters. Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich. With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.

-Among Republicans Gingrich leads Paul 25-17. But with voters who identify as Democrats or independents, 21% of the electorate in a year with no action on the Democratic side, Paul leads Gingrich 34-14 with Romney at 17%.

Young voters, independents, and folks who haven't voted in caucuses before is an unusual coalition for a Republican candidate...the big question is whether these folks will really come out and vote...if they do, we could be in for a big upset.

Paul's supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich's are. 77% of current Paul voters say they're definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich. Romney has much more solid support than Gingrich as well, 67% of his voters saying they're with him for the long haul. Among only voters who say their mind's totally made up, 29% support Paul to 21% for Gingrich, 18% for Romney, and 11% for Bachmann....

-Here's a finding that helps explain why Mitt Romney's struggling so much: 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of the Republican establishment and an equal 31% have an unfavorable one with 38% unsure. When Romney rolls out endorsement after endorsement, to a lot of voters that's actually coming across as a negative thing. With those anti-establishment voters Paul's at 34% to 18% for Gingrich, 12% for Santorum, and only 10% for Romney.

Wow, Hard Hitting Ron Paul Ad Attacking Newt Gingrich

What the People Who Know Newt Gingrich Say About Him

Over the weekend, WSJ carried this report from Peggy Noonan:

What is striking is the extraordinary divide in opinion between those who know Gingrich and those who don't. Those who do are mostly not for him, and they were burning up the phone lines this week in Washington...

Former New Hampshire governor and George H.W. Bush chief of staff John Sununu told The Wall Street Journal this week: "Listen to just about anyone who worked alongside Gingrich and you will hear that he's inconsistent, erratic, untrustworthy and unprincipled." In a conference call Thursday, Jim Talent, who served with Mr. Gingrich in the House from 1993 through 1999, said, "He's not reliable as a leader." Sen. Tom Coburn, a member of the House class of 1994, called the former speaker's leadership "lacking," and according to a local press report, he told Oklahoma constituents last year that Mr. Gingrich was "the last person I'd vote for for president of the United States."

Sen. Lindsey Graham told a reporter that Mr. Gingrich could be a historic president if he has "matured as a person and is, for lack of a better word, calmed down." That is as close as most of those who've worked with him get to a compliment...

The biggest fear of those who've known Mr. Gingrich? He has gone through his political life making huge strides, rising in influence and achievement, and then been destabilized by success, or just after it. Maybe he's made dizzy by the thin air at the top, maybe he has an inner urge to be tragic, to always be unrealized and misunderstood. But he goes too far, his rhetoric becomes too slashing, the musings he shares—when he rose to the speakership, in 1995, it was that women shouldn't serve in combat because they're prone to infections—are too strange...

Those who know him fear—or hope—that he will be true to form in one respect: He will continue to lose to his No. 1 longtime foe, Newt Gingrich. He is a human hand grenade who walks around with his hand on the pin, saying, "Watch this!"

What they fear is that he will show just enough discipline over the next few months, just enough focus, to win the nomination. And then, in the fall of 2012, once party leaders have come around and the GOP is fully behind him, he will begin baying at the moon...

They're afraid he'll start saying, "John Paul was great, but most of that happened after I explained the Gospels to him,"...

...this is a walk on the wild side.

Rand Paul Responds to Donald Trump Calling His Father a "Wacky Candidate"

On Friday, Rand Paul was interviewed by CNN's Wolf Blitzer. During the interview he slammed many of the positions Newt Gingrich holds. When Blitzer questioned Senator Rand about comments Trump made about his father, Rand handled the situation smoothly and made a very important point about Trump and his positioning himself in the Republican Party. Rand pointed out that Trump supports a lot of Democrats and wondered outloud if Trump should even be considered a Republican.

Julie Borowski on Newt Gingrich and the 418 Times He Co-Sponsored Bills with Nancy Pelosi

In 4 minutes and 32 seconds Julie Borowski tells you all you need to know about Newt Gingrich.

Rand Paul Warns Voters about Gingrich and Romney

In a letter to the Des Moines Register, Senator Rand Paul details why Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are not conservatives.

Rand says of Romney:

He's moderate, northeastern, don’t-rock-the-boat Republican, and I think everyone in the party clearly understands that.

As for Gingrich, Rand says:

...what worries me is that the voters are being sold a bill of goods in Gingrich.

Gingrich began his career as a Rockefeller Republican from the liberal wing of the party. And though he has often spoken and occasionally acted like he left that wing, it is clear from his flip-flops and multiple “apologies” that his heart is still there...Gingrich is not from the tea party. He is not even a conservative.

He is part of the Washington establishment I was sent to fight. He has been wrong on many of the major issues of the day, and he has taken money from those who helped cause the housing crisis and create millions of foreclosures.

Senator Paul's full letter is here:

As a U.S. senator elected from and by the tea party, I am often asked about the tea party, the conservative movement and the presidential race.

While conservatives and limited-government activists did, indeed, make great strides in 2010, those could easily be set back by nominating someone with a different set of ideas and values in 2012.

Let me start with something important. I have two goals for 2012:

I want to prevent the European debt crisis from consuming America next.

I want to elect a president who will defend the ideas of constitutional conservatism and limited government.

Unfortunately, while all Republican candidates would be an improvement over the present administration, two of the current frontrunners simply do not represent the tea party, the conservative movement, or the type of change our country desperately needs in 2012.

Let me begin with the most obvious reasons:

Both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich supported the outrageous $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, bailouts — “one of the most unpopular government programs in American history,” even according to President Obama’s own Treasury Department.

Both Romney and Gingrich have been outspoken and unapologetic supporters of the individual mandate. This is the heart and soul of ObamaCare.

Since the tea party started as a reaction to Republicans who voted for TARP, and was strengthened into a national political force during the fight over ObamaCare, I believe this disqualifies both Romney and Gingrich from tea party support.

A Poll that Ron Paul is Losing Badly

A FoxNews poll shows that 40% of voters think of Gingrich as phony, 36% would say the same about Romney.

ABC News: Ron Paul Drawing Big Crowds in Iowa

Jason Volack at ABC News blogs:

Hot on the heels of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in Iowa, Ron Paul is rallying the youth vote and drawing big crowds.
Speaking to a standing-room-only gathering of more than 1,000 college-age students in Ames, Iowa, Thursday night, Paul declared again that the war on drugs had been a failure, reminding the audience that more people had died in preventing people from using drugs than from the drugs themselves.

“I’m just not frightened by a free society,” said Paul. “I’m frightened by those who prevent us from having a free society. That’s where the real threats are.”

The Paul campaign has picked up steam and has its sights set on new national front-runner Newt Gingrich, by going after the anti-Washington, anti-establishment voters.

Brian Naylor at NPR writes:

At first glance, it's not easy to figure why Ron Paul is so popular with young people. At 76, he's old enough to be their grandfathers, something he alluded to at a packed rally at Iowa State University in Ames Thursday night.

"I understand this is a busy week, some of you are involved with studyin' so this was a chance not to have to study for a couple hours right? But I have a lot of children, a lot of grandchildren but I'm always advising them study hard get your courses down," Paul told the crowd.

Several hundred young people, mostly students, packed the Great Hall of Iowa States Union building. Many wore flannel shirts and knit caps on a cold snowy night. They listened intently as Paul, standing behind a lectern touched on some of his more esoteric views, on Austrian economists and returning to the gold standard. But they responded with enthusiasm when he got to issues they could relate to, like the threat he says is posed by the Patriot Act.

"There's a serious attack on our personal liberties — your rights, your privacy, passing bills out of a panic mode and passing things like the Patriot Act. it does not help your personal liberty. I'd like to get rid of the Patriot Act to tell you the truth."

Paul also struck a chord when he called for a sensible foreign policy, one that does not feature thousands of American troops fighting and based overseas...

After the speech dozens of students stood in a long line to have their pictures taken with Paul. The photos would later be posted on the Ron Paul Facebook page.

HOT: Gingrich Would Name Neo-Con 'Force of Darkness' as Secretary of State

Wow, Newt Gingrich's true colors are sure coming out, today.

The Washington Times reports that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich promised conservatives on Tuesday he would ask John R. Bolton to be his secretary of state if he’s elected president next year.

Hours later, according to WaTi, he repeated that vow publicly to the Republican Jewish Coalition, winning a round of applause.

What should we think of the Gingrich statement? Here is  part of an open 2005 memo by the late Jude Wanniski to Richard Lugar, then-Chairman, Senate Foreign Relations:

Memo To: Richard Lugar, Chairman, Senate Foreign Relations
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: An Anti-Diplomat at the U.N.?

Dear Senator, you’ve known me for more than 30 years, from your days as Mayor of Indianapolis and my days as associate editor of The Wall Street Journal. When I tell you John Bolton is a true force of darkness, you can be sure I do not do so lightly. “Darkness” in this sense is the absence of light and Bolton is a protégé of Richard Perle, who has been known for decades in Washington as “The Prince of Darkness.” They are both masters of misinformation, believing that their “just cause” gives them the right, even the responsibility, to make the facts and intelligence fit their personal political objectives. They’re patriots and I would never say they are not. But it is not in their nature to be straight, and both men will always advise the use of force rather than bother with diplomacy. They loath and despise the United Nations. When President Bush asked John Bolton if he has respect for the U.N., Bolton said he did, but remember he is a force of darkness and will always say what he believes will advance his personal goals.

I’ve been watching Bolton from a distance from the earliest days of the administration, knowing of his associations with Perle and the neo-cons at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), which I have long characterized as the HQ of what President Eisenhower called “the military-industrial complex.”

Here's another 2005 Wanniski comment on Bolton:

As I was driving back to the office at mid-day today, I heard a news report that President Bush had nominated John Bolton to be the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. My heart skipped a beat and I could feel my blood pressure climb through the roof. John Bolton. Ugh. This is the bottom of the barrel. It's almost impossible to imagine the President nominating anyone worse than Bolton, a certified bully who has single-handedly done more to poison our relations with China, North Korea and Iran than any other bureaucrat in the Bush Administration. He is one of Richard Perle's principle henchman in the Neo-Con Cabal to conquer the world with U.S. military might. He is a master of disinformation, by which I mean he knows how to use falsehoods and deceit to promote the objectives of his masters in the Cabal.

Only a few weeks back, for goodness sakes, I had celebrated when Bolton lost his bid to become Deputy Secretary of State to Condi Rice. Instead, she chose Robert Zoellick, the U.S. Trade Representative the last four years, a certified diplomat who really believes in diplomacy. At the NATO workshop I attended in Lisbon over this last weekend, I cited Bolton's decline and Zoellick's elevation as a sign that the neo-cons had been set back and we might be able to expect a more reasonable foreign policy emanating from Washington in the second Bush administration. I could see smiles all around and heads nodding in agreement from the four dozen people around the table – most of them from the countries on the Mediterranean whose people had opposed the war in Iraq. They were encouraged by the Zoellick selection and I imagine their blood pressure is now on the rise over Bolton.

I now wonder, does President Bush realize he is practically spitting in the faces of the global diplomatic community with his Bolton pick, by which I mean most of the governments of the world. Did anyone mention to him that when Bolton was picked in 2001 to be Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, he was confirmed in the Senate by 57-to-43 votes. All 43 nays came from Democrats who had observed his bullyboy tactics in his previous posts in GOP administrations, at Justice as well as at State. Given Bolton's record at State, this almost guarantees he will get no Democratic votes to confirm him. Perhaps even a few Republican Senators – those who are getting just a little bit tired of Perle, Wolfowitz and their imperial blueprint for the USA – may vote "nay" as well.

We should have seen it coming, when Bolton was permitted to remain at his State post after he lost the neo-con campaign to get him the job as Condi's minder. When there was a report he was going to return to private life and he didn't, it should have been clear the Cabal, chiefly housed in the Vice President's office, was looking for a good spot for him. What a delicious idea, they must have thought, to send him to the United Nations, which he has written about with great disdain over the years. In recent weeks, Bolton pulled out every stop to try to block Mohammed ElBaradei from getting a third term as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Why? Because Baradei had refused to play ball with the neo-cons in their scheme to persuade the White House that Iran should be dealt with harshly for having nuclear weapons programs. Bolton spread the word that maybe even Israel should bomb Iran the way it bombed Iraq's nuclear power plant in 1981. As I told the NATO workshop, Baradei is probably the most respected official of the world's international agencies, the most honest and effective, which is why the neo-cons wanted him out. Bolton thought he could buy off the votes he needed to drive a stake through Baradei's heart, but a survey of the IAEA board showed he could only get one or two votes of the 35 he needed, the U.S. being one of them.

In the Clinton years, Bolton cooled his heels at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., AEI being the think-tank of the Military-Industrial Complex and the hangout of Richard Perle. I know, because I hung out at AEI during the Cold War, and I know how it all works. AEI would have vanished a long time ago, I believe, if it were not for the generosity of major corporations – those that make things to blow up other parts of the world or those who rebuild them after they have been leveled, all with taxpayer dollars.

Ans that's the take on Newt Gingrich's man for Secretary of State.

Rachel Maddow Destroys Gingrich on Ethics Violations

Using NBC archives, Maddow reminds us "of the start of Newt Gingrich's collapse in political life."

Gingrich Camp Responds to Ron Paul TV Ad

The Gingrich campaign:

'Our camp has been on the high road and we will continue to be on the high road'

Oh puhleeze, as if the Gingrich campaign would respond any other way to the truthful charges that Gingrich is a hypocrite.

Drudge: Ron Paul Goes for Gingrich Throat

Ron Paul is telling it like it is, and people are noticing. Here'e the current top headline on the Drudge Report: IOWA BLITZ: RON PAUL GOES FOR NEWT THROAT.

The Drudge link takes visitors to the below new Ron Paul ad.

Newt Gingrich's Plan to Blast North Korea with Orbiting Death Rays

A preview of Newt Gingrich, Commander-in-Chief.

In April of 2009, Gingrich went on Fox News to declare that North Korea's impending launch of a missile must be stopped — with "whatever preemptive actions are necessary!" reports Wired.

"I'd find a way to have either a small team go in, or a way to deliver either a laser or another kind of device," Gingrich noted.

Gingrich was likely talking about the Airborne Laser, the jumbo jet tricked out with a missile-zapping directed energy cannon. As Speaker of the House, Newt had intervened several times to keep the project alive, despite broken deadlines and mushrooming costs, according to Wired.

Despite being $4 billion over budget, "none of [its] seven critical technologies are fully mature after more than a decade of development," the Government Accountability Office noted in a report.

Wired continues:

Not long after Gingrich's suggestion to use the laser, then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates radically scaled back the Airborne Laser effort — and repeatedly pointed to it as an example of everything that was dumb and wrong about the Pentagon's weapon-development process.

As for the North Korean missile that Gingrich so feared, it was as big a flop as the laser Gingrich wanted to fight it with. The missile's first stage fell into the Sea of Japan, and the remaining stages landed in the Pacific Ocean.

The Trump-Gingrich Link

Daniel Gross explains:

Newt likes Trump: "true American icon". http://ow.ly/7Po52 no wonder, they're both members of the third wives club.

New Poll: Ron Paul Surges Past Romney in Iowa

A new Iowa Poll, just published by the Des Moines Register, reports Ron Paul has surged past one-time front-runner Mitt Romney and moved into second place.

According to the new poll results, Gingrich leads the pack at 25% of likely caucus-goers with less than a month until they're held. Paul is second with 18% and Romney now trails with 16%.

Columnist Andrew Malcolm explains why this could mean Congressman Paul may win in Iowa:

That might seem like a comfortable lead for the former House speaker with only 30 days left. But here's the special deal about Iowa: It's not an all-day drop by and vote anytime from 6 a.m. til 8 p.m. thing.

It starts at 7 p.m. and depends on a candidate's determined supporters being prepared to go out on a cold night and hang in all evening, schmoozing, campaigning, bargaining and voting ballot after ballot after ballot until maybe midnight on a school-work night.

Romney has not been working to win in Iowa, having been spanked into second place there four years ago by Mike Huckabee. Gingrich didn't open his first Hawkeye state campaign office until this week.

However, Paul's people are not just supporters; they are disciples, some even willing to doff their clothes for him, as we wrote here. They will also stand (clothed) for windy hours with signs on Interstate overpasses for their guy.

And all fall while other candidates rocketed up and flamed out, the Paul campaign, his third for the presidency (1988 and 2008), has been seeking volunteers from across the country to travel to Iowa for pre-caucus campaigning.

(htTomWoods)

1992 Attack Ad on Newt Gingrich

LOL. Politico goes to the archives to bring us this video clip, which ran in 1992 during the Republican primary, when Gingrich successfully ran for Congress.

Ron Paul on Newt Gingrich Getting a Free Ride and Why Herman Cain Should Drop Out of the Race

As always, Ron Paul is the man of calm and reason. In the clip below, he wonders why there hasn't been more focus by mainstream media on Newt Gingrich flip-flops and tells us why Herman Cain should really drop out of the race.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Ron Paul Comes Out Swinging Against Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich flip flops and his pocketing of millions in lobbying money is front and center in this Ron Paul ad that highlights Newt Gingrich the hypocrite.