Thursday, September 17, 2009

Breaking Down the Unadjusted Initial Unemployment Claims

The unadjusted number of initial unemployment claims dropped by the quite large number of 59,000 last week to 407,869. This probably has to do with Labor Day. Despite horror stories to the contrary, the number of layoffs around holidays tends to decline significantly.

Interestingly, the 407k initial unemployed is the lowest number since (probably not just by coincidence) last September. From here, we are headed into a period when initial claims start to rise on a seasonal basis.

I really don't see anything in the economy right now that will improve things overall, so expect the real unadjusted initial claims to start climbing again.

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