Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Toll Brothers CEO Sees Nascent Rebound in U.S. Home Sales

This is big.

The worst is over for the U.S. housing market and a rebound will gain momentum in 2012, according to Douglas Yearley, chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc.

“The recovery is here to stay,” Yearley, whose company is the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg. “I think 2011 will be an improving year, but I think 2012 will be a big year for us.”

 I think he is off here. You will see a recovery by the second-half of 2011. What he is seeing now is the result of Bernake reinvesting MBS cash flow, when QE2 has its impact, things are going to be much stronger much quicker than most expect.

Toll’s best markets are in New York, Washington, D.C., and parts of North Carolina, while the Las Vegas and Chicago areas are among the worst, Yearley said.

“Chicago to us is as bad as Las Vegas,” he said. “We sell more houses in Michigan than Illinois.”


  1. Wait, housing is going to recover -- despite the fact that price-to-income ratios have not returned to anything like historic averages and that they seriously overbuilt in the bubble.

    I hate these people. They're blowing bubbles again, and I hate them.

  2. And yet Roubini has recently endorsed the $1T in additional home value loss as calculated by Amherst Securities...

  3. Never follow Roubini on forecasts. He is great for providing data. And also his insights into gvt officials thinking are valuable(since he knows them all)

    But as a forecaster, because of his generally Keynesian thinking, he can be way off.