Friday, November 18, 2011

Keynesians Surprised (Again), This Time by Strength in Leading Economic Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 117.4 (2004 = 100).

CNBC reports, this was "more than expected". The median forecast of 56 Keynesian economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the gauge would advance only 0.6 percent.

Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board said:
The October rebound of the LEI — largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits — suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded. Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as did the continuing positive contributions from the interest rate spread. The CEI also rose somewhat, led by higher industrial production and employment.

Ken Goldstein, another economist at The Conference Board:
The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining a little momentum by spring.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 103.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in September and August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.6 percent in October to 110.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.

Bottom line: Expect trend following Keynesian econometric forecasters to continue to upgrade expected growth. They do not have a correct understanding of how the economy works, so they don't see turns in the economy until they are hit in the head with them, but they are starting to feel the blow. Only Austrian Business Cycle Theory correctly explains the connection between aggressive money printing (which is what the Fed is doing) and a manipulated boom that is likely to lead to very strong price inflation.

1 comment:

  1. You mean these indicators of economic strength?