Wednesday, December 21, 2011

AP: Economy Ends Tough 2011 on a Surprising Upswing

AP economics writer reports what EPJ readers understood months ago was coming:
The economy is ending 2011 on a roll.

The job market is healthier. Americans are spending lustily on holiday gifts. A long-awaited turnaround for the depressed housing industry may be under way.....Factories are busier. Stocks are higher.

Not bad for an economy faced with a debt crisis in Europe and, as recently as this summer, scattered predictions of a second recession at home. Instead, the economy has grown faster each quarter this year, and the last three months should be the best.
Here's what AP reports Krugman-like Keynesian economists were saying as recently as August:
When The Associated Press surveyed 43 economists in August, they pegged the likelihood of another recession at roughly one in four. The Dow Jones industrial average was lurching up or down by 400 points or more some days.

There was plenty of reason for gloom. A political standoff over the federal borrowing limit brought the United States to the brink of default and cost the nation its top-drawer credit rating.
This is I wrote on August 11:
Underneath the surface, though, the Fed is aggressively pumping money, which will create a new manipulated boom. The developing manipulated boom is what the insiders are seeing. Money is flowing and will work its way into the stock market.
I doubled-down in October. This is what I wrote on October 7:
Bottom line: Keynesians are clueless. The private sector continues to improve because of Bernanke money printing and the shrinkage is now pretty much at the local government level, as a result of declining tax revenues (which will also reverse itself in coming months). There is no double dip. The stock market and economy will soon go into a Fed manipulated boom, that will have Keynesians scratching their heads even more.


  1. More cash for near? Got change?

  2. August:

    "At the start of the year, I forecast that double digit price inflation would hit somewhere in the second half of the year. The second half has just started and only a short-term dip in energy prices (down 0.6% in July) prevented that from coming very close to occurring in July, but we are very near. Money supply is currently growing very rapidly under Fed chief Ben Bernanke and the likelihood that we will hit double digit price inflation by the end of the year remains very strong."

    In the past six months, non seasonally adjusted CPI has grown .1% overall. (.8% adjusted) PPI Finished goods increased .8% in the past 6 months. Not even close to "double digit" inflation.

    I think it's only fair you at the very least acknowledge what you have gotten wrong. Whatever happened to showing some humility?

  3. There's a post missing. Check spam filter.