Thursday, July 5, 2012

Falling Oil Prices Present a Great Opportunity - An Interview with Jim Rogers

In an interview with OilPrice.com Jim Rogers discusses:

• Why recent oil price falls are a good buying opportunity
• Investment opportunities with the renewable energy sector
• Why he is optimistic about Nuclear energy
• Why agriculture offers good opportunities to investors
• Why Myanmar is the best investment opportunity in the world right now
• Why there could be further unrest in the Middle East
• Why we should let Greece fail

The interview was conducted by James Stafford of Oilprice.com

Oilprice.com: Jim, thanks for taking the time to join us today.

Jim Rogers: I'm delighted to be here, James. My pleasure.

Oilprice.com: It’s been an interesting period in the energy world as we’ve seen oil prices steadily decline over the past few months and with the problems in Europe and slowdowns in India and China do you expect this trend to continue?

Jim Rogers: Well, there is certainly a correction going on for various reasons. I think Saudi Arabia's trying to help re-elect Mr. Obama. There are also stories that JP Morgan has problems in its London office with a lot of unauthorized positions they're having to liquidate. I don't know what's going on, but I do know that corrections are normal in the industrial world. There's nothing unusual about it. If it continues, there’s an opportunity to buy more.

Oilprice.com: I read a report by the Economist Phil Verleger who thinks that the Saudi’s massive increase in oil production along with other economic problems could cause oil prices crash to $40 a barrel oil and $2 a gallon gasoline by November. Do you think this is a reasonable forecast and we could see oil at these levels?

Jim Rogers: We could see anything. We certainly saw lower prices than that back in 2008 when there was a collapse. When things are collapsing, all sorts of strange things happen. We found that out in 2008 and we will probably find out in the future, as well. If oil does go to $40, that means it'll just be setting up an even more bullish scenario for the duration of the bull market.

Oilprice.com: How do you see the energy markets reacting to the Iranian sanctions, which are going to be coming into effect on the first of July?

Jim Rogers: Oh, I don't see that having much effect at all. Everybody already knows about that - nothing new to the markets. They have long since adjusted to this news, whether it be stock markets, smuggling, etc. The Iranian sanctions are a non-event as far as I'm concerned.
Now, an attack on Iran would not be a non-event, but this is just more noise.

Oilprice.com: The Middle East Petocracy’s, along with Venezuela and Russia must be nervously watching the price of oil. Can you see potential problems developing in these countries and other oil producing nations if prices continue to fall?

Jim Rogers: That's part of what I was saying before. The lower prices go for the fundamentals, the price of fundamentals improve, but for these countries the money they have available to buy peace is running out and there are going to be problems, because a lot of people have been lead to believe that the government can solve their problems and if the government runs out of money, it makes people upset.

Oilprice.com: Crude oil has dropped from $108 a barrel in February to $84 today. Do you think low oil prices could provide an economic stimulus?

Jim Rogers: Certainly, it's an economic stimulus for everybody who buys oil. There's no question about that. On the other hand, for people who produce oil, it's a negative. Now obviously more of us buy oil than produce oil, but it’s important to remember it does cut both ways.

Read the rest here.

2 comments:

  1. I was wondering at point US production of oil through fracking becomes a loser?

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    1. I remember reading back in 2010 a break-even price of $80-$100 for Bakken shale oil. Of course, improvements in knowledge and economies of scale must have brought this down quite a bit. I'd guess the marginal fields are around $70/barrel.

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