Friday, October 26, 2012

Latest Swing State Poll Numbers

President Barack Obama and RMitt Romney are running neck-and-neck in Colorado and Nevada, which means that both candidates still have a path to victory in the Electoral College that runs through the West, new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys show.


Romney had gained ground in Colorado over the past month, moving from a five-point deficit in mid-September to a tie, with each candidate drawing 48% support among likely voters.

In Nevada, the President outpolledRomney among likely voters, 50% to 47%, a lead within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. In a late-September Journal survey, the President had led by about the same margin, 49% to 47%.

"Right now, Colorado is a coin toss, and the [Obama] edge in Nevada is slight," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the polls.

WSJ comments:
Neither state is among the largest battlegrounds, but they are drawing increasing attention in light of the close nature of the battle in Ohio, the second-largest swing state. Should either candidate lose Ohio, winning in Colorado and Nevada would become crucial to his efforts to make up the lost votes. 
Nearly all scenarios require Mr. Romney to carry Florida, the nation's largest swing state, in order to build an Electoral College majority; that isn't true of Mr. Obama, who has several ways to assemble a majority without Florida.
Polls show Obama ahead in Florida 49% to 47%.

2 comments:

  1. "Polls show Obama ahead in Florida 49% to 47%."

    Incorrect. The polls show on average a lead for Romney of more than 2%.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html



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  2. "In Nevada, the President outpolledRomney among likely voters, 50% to 47%, a lead within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. In a late-September Journal survey, the President had led by about the same margin, 49% to 47%."

    I'm no Romney supporter, nor will I vote for either of the parties, but I think this poll might mislead folks as to who will likely win Nevada. The funny thing is that these polls more often than not underestimate the importance of the Mormon vote in places like Nevada or Arizona.

    Years ago, in the 2000 election, Janet Napalitano ran for US Congress against the Mormon Jeff Flake (also a liberaltarian warmonger of the Cato kind) in AZ. Napalitano consistently polled neck and neck to ahead of Flake prior to election day. However, she was blown out. Pollsters failed to take into account the Mormon vote in voting for a Mormon. The Mormons will vote in full force, and will vote for Romney. As such, I would not be suprised at the large lead that Romney ends up with in NV and AZ.

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