Monday, October 8, 2012

Obama Still Leads in Most Key Swing States

The President continues to lead in most key states, but his lead is shrinking. He holds just a two percentage points lead in Iowa. In Colorado, he leads by 1 point and Virginia by 3 points.  The numbers are also tightening in Wisconsin and Nevada.

Here's Public Policy Polling's analysis of the race in Virginia:
PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-47 in the state, down from a 51-46 advantage three weeks ago. This is the closest  we've found the race in Virginia the entire cycle, but Obama continues to find himself at the critical 50% mark in a state where Romney probably can't afford to lose. 
 Romney's performance in the debate on Wednesday seems to have helped his image with Virginia voters. They think he won the debate by a 61/28 margin, including 71/17 with independents. Compared to our last poll he's seen a 10 point gain in his net favorability rating from -2 at 47/49 in mid-September to now +8 at 52/44. The problem for Romney is that most of that gain has come with Democrats, from 6/90 to 21/76. But still only 8% of those Democrats are actually voting for Romney. Much of the improvement in Romney's image is people going from hating Romney and voting for Obama to respecting Romney but still voting for Obama.


  1. Let me guess, the Republicans think these polls are much more accurate? For those who are willing to put their money where their mouth is, it's still not even close on Intrade.

  2. Is it just coincidence that as the US steps up pressure on Syria and Iran that the polls start to swing in the warmonger's favor?

    1. Which warmonger? Their biggest difference will be timing.

  3. Isn't PPP the DailyKos poll? "Hmmm..."
    A recent Pew (hardly a right wing org) Poll (which does NOT include fall out from the debate) has Romney in good shape. Polls are behaving EXTREMELY weird this cycle. If the Pew is a harbinger, things are turning upside down.
    But maybe they will just continue to be weird.
    “…the sample breakdown in this poll [is] D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8. That’s more Democratic than 2008′s D+7…”

    Some commentary on the Pew poll in the links below, plus a few snips.
    Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week…..
    Romney now leads among independents by 16 points, 51 percent to 35 percent…..
    This poll was in the field last Monday through Thursday, but about 85 percent of the calls were made before the debate on Wednesday night. The final night of tracking was good for Romney, but it’s not a big enough sample to report. So this does not reflect any momentum Romney might get from his performance in Denver.

  4. Anon 8:25...which warmonger?

  5. Its good to see Gary Johnson pulling in 4% in Virginia. That's the only bright spot in all of this.

  6. Diebold, the great equalizer will guarantee the win.

  7. Who cares what the Intrade contract trades at? You can't predict the future. Rather, sophisticated people use prediction markets to hedge (Ie. if Obama's re-election will hurt you in some way, you go long his re-election, but aren't really betting on the probability).

  8. fwiw, a newer PPP (DailyKos/SEIU) poll out today has Romney in the lead. Probably they are spiking the numbers pro-Romney so they can deflate him after the 2nd debate?
    Highlights: D+3 sample (most pollsters have inexplicably gone with D+8, the '08 election was D+7 and the '10 midterm was, I believe R+1),
    Romney up 49-47.
    Romney wins Independents 48-42.