Thursday, November 1, 2012

Obama Ahead in 3 Key States

President Obama holds narrow leads over Mitt Romney in the battleground states of Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa, according to new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys.

Obama holds a slight 49%-46% lead in Wisconsin among likely voters, half what it was two weeks ago, and a 49%-47% lead in New Hampshire, down from his lead of 7 percentage points there in September.

In Iowa, the president holds a more formidable 50%-44% lead among likely voters.

Polls further suggest the race is basically tied in Florida and Virginia, while the president holds a slight edge in Ohio.


  1. Looks like Ron Paul supporters voting Gary Johnson could actually swing New Hampshire and Iowa. I don't want four more years of Obama, but establishment Republicans reap what they sow.

  2. The pollsters are still weighting like 2008 was a normal year. We'll see on Tues if the Dems and media have successfully removed the Repubs as an opposition party, or if the Tea Party 2010 results were a better model.
    It is striking how each week we get a new headline: "Slim Obama Lead in North Carolina", is replaced by a slim lead in Virginia, then Ohio. This week the slim (but "hardening") lead is in WI, IA and NH. Next week we'll likely see MN and PA.
    If the campaign went any longer, we'd probably see CA and NY buckling.

  3. The pollsters are all over the map this cycle. Wow!
    Ras has these headlines:
    Iowa, Romney 49, Obama 48
    Wisconsin 49/49
    Ohio Romney 50, Obama 48