Thursday, November 1, 2012
Obama Ahead in Many Keys States Coming Down the Stretch
An NBC/Marist/WSJ poll of likely voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin finds Obama up six points in Iowa (down from an eight-point lead earlier this month). In Wisconsin, Obama edges out Romney 49 to 46 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Earlier this month, the president led by six in the same survey. In New Hampshire, Obama is at 49 percent and Romney at 47 percent; in September the president led by seven points.
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The pollsters are still weighting like 2008 was a normal year. We'll see on Tues if the Dems and media have successfully removed the Repubs as an opposition party, or if the Tea Party 2010 results were a better model.
ReplyDeleteIt is striking how each week we get a new headline: "Slim Obama Lead in North Carolina", is replaced by a slim lead in Virginia, then Ohio. This week the slim (but "hardening") lead is in WI, IA and NH. Next week we'll likely see MN and PA.
If the campaign went any longer, we'd probably see CA and NY buckling.
One interesting but indirect indicator--predictions for Dem gains the House are plummeting. There are quite a few dodgy 2010 midterm winners on the Repub side, but the Dems are not showing any signs of life in competing with them. Wouldn't a strong Obama showing influence these races?
Obama and Romney are campaigning in places where, if the election were breaking for Obama, would not typically be campaigning. Sorry, I don't believe the polls.
ReplyDeleteRichie is right.
ReplyDeleteThe MSM is desperately trying to show Obama as the front runner.
Obama has just plain abandoned Indiana, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. And there is no reason to believe Dems will show up in 2008 numbers.
If Romney goes to PA before the election, you know he has also won Ohio. The Dems are working on defense, not offense. The MSM as usual, is muddying the water for the Progressives.