But there are confused haters of progress, who don't understand basic economics and the fact that increases in productivity raises the standard of living for all of us. I say take this woman's computer and twitter account away from her and make her carve her thoughts out on stone:
When Amazon's drones eliminate thousands of jobs, there will be fewer people to buy Amazon goods #downward spiral
— Neera Tanden (@neeratanden) December 2, 2013
Man, they better allow this. What a bunch of crap if they don't.
ReplyDeleteAwesome idea.
Not to be a Luddite, but "not for some time" here means ten or fifteen years. I have a drone and it can fly about fifteen minutes. A larger battery weighs more and does not add flying time.
ReplyDeleteTwo hours charge for 15 minutes delivery time- think of the logistics. Drone returns - two hours downtime. Well, just wait for better batteries - yup like our experience with electric cars.
Drones probably cost multiple thousands of dollars, battery miscalculation puts them on the street for anyone to pick up. Someone could order a 2 dollar book and hit the drone with a baseball bat for fun.
weight limit would be in grams. This is a major problem. What is the lift of that octo-copter? Less than one pound with packaging?
Drone is on gps not optical recognition so it might hit a person landing in front of a home. If it avoids objects kids might play a game to keep the drone away until the battery runs out.
How will the USG distinguish between Amazon drones and terrorist drones? If a drone can fly up to your door legally, what if an extortioner who does not have much physical courage threatened to drone a firebomb on you home instead of a few feet in front of it? Will drones be registered? Will
Amazon have to file a flight plan for each delivery and wait for
USG approval? How will USG track?
I agree with your sentiments. I am deeply skeptical this can be done well & efficiently in the next 5 years as Bezos suggested on a video I watched last night.(I'm rooting for him anyway)
DeleteI can see where it might be viable in certain areas, like NYC for example, where UPS/Fedex have challenges and there is huge population density within short distances. However, could Amazon use this system in a place like northern Texas for example, where the distances are huge? I highly doubt it.
As to your comment about electricity, I believe these drones would have to be powered by good ole fashion fuel to be effective. But all of your other points are valid.
Even with the use of fuel for such drones, I can't imagine that such a delivery service wouldn't cost a "premium" way above an beyond Fedex/UPS, etc. given how efficient those companies already are.(if drone delivery is viable, rest assure they will be entering the market as well)
just what we need....another eye in the sky
ReplyDeleteYes, There should be delivery people delivering packages by balancing them on their heads while crawling on their bellies!!!!
ReplyDeleteThink of the JOBS!!!!
Didn't he also say he's hosting CIA's data in his cloud servers? Sounds like a great marriage.
ReplyDeleteWell, I'm on board with this. Perfect example of the good things the free market would do with drones vs. the damage done by governments. Free market = products and goods I want. Government = Death and destruction.
ReplyDeleteI note with interest that, based on the brief FAQ on the Amazon web site, the only thing they're waiting for is FAA approval/regulations/bureaucracy. The FAA will delay this innovation by *years*, the same way they held back in-flight wifi.
ReplyDeleteI just tweeted at this stupid C you Next Tuesday...
ReplyDeleteSo we should use sticks to dig for grubs? Or plows instead of horses?
A competitor is already doing this in Australia.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dezeen.com/2013/10/16/flying-drones-to-deliver-text-books/
If you think Bezos is a friend of liberty or even someone who would survive in a real free market environment, you got another think coming.
ReplyDeleteBeating Bezos to market:
ReplyDeletehttp://gawker.com/georgia-police-bust-drone-dropping-contraband-into-pri-1472633983
Maybe it's time to sell short the shares of companies who make trucks and parts for UPS, FedEx, etc.
ReplyDeleteSee people, the FAA Modernization and Reform Act was passed, like all legislation, to clear the way for private business pursuits. One day you anarchists will learn to stop looking becasue there is nothing to see.
ReplyDeleteHe is a genius. Just as the Christmas shopping season gears up he got his store mentioned on every TV newscast for two days running now. Plus a reminder that you don't have to fight crowds to get your shopping done.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteAt first, I was a bit impressed, but:
1. If there is ever regulatory approval, it is likely 5-8 years away, at least;
2. Those likely to spend the money for Amazon Prime Air, by the time it is ready, will probably have one or more 3D printers, which will avoid the necessity of buying from Amazon at all.
3. Rather than creating individual drones, to send to homes, it would probably be more efficient for Amazon to get goods to the local UPS/FedEx/U.S. Mail, within an hour after ordering, and have them deliver. Likely this could be done this year, as my Amazon Prime orders only take 2 days now.
The drone only carries up to 5 pounds, which I think Amazon said is the majority of their orders. However, I suspect those are minimal, profit margins. Heavier items, such as computers, notebooks, monitors, etc., are probably higher $ margin, if not % margin.
And for high priced items, like jewelry, I doubt a drone would work, as the mob would easily figure out ways to capture them.
Very science fiction, but I don't think very practical. And likely to insure that Amazon will still not make a profit for another 5-10 years.
"The drone only carries up to 5 pounds, which I think Amazon said is the majority of their orders. However, I suspect those are minimal, profit margins."
DeleteThose elusive margins...how does he keep this ball and his net worth in the air?
How Amazon Trained Its Investors to Behave
With Amazon, though, nobody emphasizes EPS. Or, when they emphasize earnings, it's in the opposite direction from what Christensen's worried about. A few months ago, I heard analyst Mark Mahaney, now of RBC Capital markets, argue (at about minute 26 on the video) that Amazon's razor-thin profit margins were a source of competitive advantage:
You really develop very sustainable moats around a business when you run it at low margins. Very few companies want to come into Amazon's core businesses and try to compete with them at 1% margins or 2% margins.
This sounds eerily similar to what Yglesias was saying, half-jokingly, on Tuesday:
Competition is always scary, but competition against a juggernaut that seems to have permission from its shareholders to not turn any profits is really frightening.
http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/01/how-amazon-trained-its-investo/
Something just occurred to me--does anyone else think it's hilarious that Amazon made this announcement less than one month after Seattle passed a $15/hr minimum wage? Your move, socialists.
ReplyDeleteSee you at the hunger games.....hope you can fight.
Delete