Saturday, April 18, 2015

Why the Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Expects the GDP Number to Strengthen for the Rest of the Year

In a recent interview, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said, “The first quarter was poor. That seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It's been that way for about four of the last five years.”

The picture below illustrates the vice chair's sentiment. Output in the first quarter has grown at a paltry 0.6 percent during the past five years, compared to a 2.9 percent average during the remaining three quarters of the year.

NOTE: Past performance does definitely not indicate future performance, but Fischer obviously thinks there is something to the trend. Another reason to look for strength in the months ahead id that money supply growth remains extremely strong. This means the Fed is distorting the economy in a manner that will boost GDP numbers.


  1. I wonder what Stanley's excuse is for Q1's during '10, '12, '13 when growth was ~1.7%, ~2.2%, and ~2.7%... did it not snow, or was it not cold in those winters? Because according to the Fed and the mainstream media, apparently it is impossible for there to be economic growth if average temperatures are below 32 degrees F.

  2. To me any statistical data coming out of the Federal Reserve, the Federal government or its consumer sentiment mouthpieces are nothing but manufactured statistical propaganda that is in essence a green screen upon which they project their fantasies of omnipotent knowledge and control to gullible consumers.