Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Have We Already Hit Peak COVID-19 Infection?

Click for larger view

There is one indicator that suggests we may have hit peak COVID-19 infection (at least for now through the summer).

The above map was created by HealthWeather.us in collaboration with Benjamin Dalziel of Oregon State University. It shows the 7-day trend in fevers across the country.

If there were areas where more people had fevers those areas would be in red, There are none.

But because the map measures only fevers, it can not be said for certain that COVID-19 has peaked, it could be just normal flu peaking. But if COVID-19 behaves like other coronaviruses, it should be declining as the weather warms.

So why aren't "confirmed cases" declining?

Because the confirmed case method to track the spread of COVID-19 is unscientific and misleading. It could very well be that just more people are being tested and therefore more cases are being detected--but that the overall number of cases is declining.

A more accurate number to track (though that also has some problems) is the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. But this will trail the cases load since people don't necessarily die the day they are tested. There is a lag of a couple of weeks.

Bottom line: The declines in fevers across the country is very promising but we can't say with absolutely certainty that we have reached peak COVID-19 infection---but it is likley.



  1. Reality check: there are NO deaths attributed to nCOV-SARS2, at least according to normal scientific and clinical criteria. All we have is deaths where patients have the virus detected. Also, there is no evidence of so-called excess deaths (over the numbers normally reported for locations and groups). It's a strange killer pandemic which doesn't show above the level of normal statistical noise.

    1. I tend to agree. But the bureaucrats are now in control and they will produce whatever numbers they need to support their case.