The stock market is down this morning by more than 3%, so I checked the components of the 30 Dow Industrial stocks to see which were up and which down. They were ALL down, except one, consumer giant, WalMart. It was UP 3.2%.
The only good things for our country [the US] are that we do have the financial resources to deal with it; we do have, for example, the ability to print money: we probably got into this sooner than the rest of the world and we will probably also get out of it sooner than the rest of the world.I have no reason to believe that Rubenstein understands Austrian Business Cycle Theory, but he sure has the gut instincts to understand, in an ABCT manner, how the whole thing works. Fed money printing is going to turn the economy around much sooner than most expect.
MOVIES REALLY ARE RECESSION-PROOF
Back in the fall, as it became clear just how deep this recession was going to be, there was a lot of talk that this time around, the entertainment industry, and in particular Hollywood, wasn’t likely to be as “recession-proof” as it was reputed to be. (Box-office receipts rose in six of the last seven recessions, and the Depression, famously, was the heyday of movie attendance in America.) The reason proffered for Hollywood’s newfound susceptibility to an economic downturn? The Internet, of course. With so many free pieces of entertainment available on the Net, the argument goes, people were much less likely to schlep to the theatre and shell out eleven bucks for a film.
So much for that idea. Box-office receipts over the Christmas/New Year’s period were up almost twenty per cent from a year ago, with a wide range of films—from “Marley and Me” to “Benjamin Button” to even critical bombs like “Seven Pounds”—all doing solid business.
Note that under standard theory neither monetary nor fiscal policy will set right the basic problems from negative real shocks and indeed the U.S. economy is undergoing a series of massive sectoral shifts. That includes a move out of construction, a move out of finance, a move out of debt-financed consumption, a move out of luxury goods, the collapse of GM, and a move out of industries which cannot compete with the internet (newspapers, Borders, etc.)What is fascinating about this is that I think Cowen is really describing Austrian business cycle theory but doesn't realize it.
An adequate theory of depressions, then, must account for the tendency of the economy to move through successive booms and busts, showing no sign of settling into any sort of smoothly moving, or quietly progressive, approximation of an equilibrium situation. In particular, a theory of depression must account for the mammoth cluster of errors which appears swiftly and suddenly at a moment of economic crisis, and lingers through the depression period until recovery.Note Rothbard discussing ABCT, he writes of a "mammoth cluster of errors."
a move out of construction, a move out of finance, a move out of debt-financed consumption, a move out of luxury goods, the collapse of GM, and a move out of industries which cannot compete with the internet (newspapers, Borders, etc.)To an ABCT theorist, they pretty much look like a list of problems in the capital goods sector. Out of construction? Check, a capital goods biz. Out of finance? Check-the very heart of capital goods financing. Debt-financed consumption? Notice how careful Cowen is here, and correctly so, it is debt financed consumption where problems exist. Check,this would fall under a sector financed by money printing credit creation. Luxury goods? The people buying luxury goods during the boom times are the ones who are getting the money first, this sector would suffer now, check. GM? Capital goods again, check.
The long-feared capitulation of American consumers has arrived…[R]eal consumer spending fell at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter; real spending on durable goods (stuff like cars and TVs) fell at an annual rate of 14 percent.
A few weeks ago, a journalist devoted a substantial part of a profile of yours truly to my failure to pay due attention to the "Austrian theory" of the business cycle—a theory that I regard as being about as worthy of serious study as the phlogiston theory of fire. Oh well. But the incident set me thinking—not so much about that particular theory as about the general worldview behind it. Call it the overinvestment theory of recessions, or "liquidationism," or just call it the "hangover theory." It is the idea that slumps are the price we pay for booms, that the suffering the economy experiences during a recession is a necessary punishment for the excesses of the previous expansion.Notice the vicious launch, "I regard [Austrian Theory] as being about as worthy of serious study as the phlogiston theory of fire".
The hangover theory is perversely seductive—not because it offers an easy way out, but because it doesn't. It turns the wiggles on our charts into a morality play, a tale of hubris and downfall. And it offers adherents the special pleasure of dispensing painful advice with a clear conscience, secure in the belief that they are not heartless but merely practicing tough love.Ah yes, the use of the word "punishment" now sets the reader up for this poppycock paragraph about a "morality play" , hubris and downfall. Thus, the evil Krugman digs the deception deeper. And, notice the use of the word "seduction", for a theory that has perhaps 1.0% of the followers of Krugman's Keynesian religion.
Powerful as these seductions may be, they must be resisted—for the hangover theory is disastrously wrongheaded.Recessions are not necessary consequences of booms. They can and should be fought, not with austerity but with liberality—with policies that encourage people to spend more, not less. Nor is this merely an academic argument:Notice the sly Krugman here, this “seductive” ( which accounts for 1.0% of trained economists) morality play (A morality play which is a strawman, created by Krugman's twisted and deceiving use of the word "punishment") "must be resisted."
The hangover theory can do real harm. Liquidationist views played an important role in the spread of the Great Depression—with Austrian theorists such as Friedrich von Hayek and Joseph Schumpeter strenuously arguing, in the very depths of that depression, against any attempt to restore "sham" prosperity by expanding credit and the money supply. And these same views are doing their bit to inhibit recovery in the world's depressed economies at this very moment.
The many variants of the hangover theory all go something like this: In the beginning, an investment boom gets out of hand. Maybe excessive money creation or reckless bank lending drives it, maybe it is simply a matter of irrational exuberance on the part of entrepreneurs. Whatever the reason, all that investment leads to the creation of too much capacity—of factories that cannot find markets, of office buildings that cannot find tenants. Since construction projects take time to complete, however, the boom can proceed for a while before its unsoundness becomes apparent. Eventually, however, reality strikes—investors go bust and investment spending collapses. The result is a slump whose depth is in proportion to the previous excesses. Moreover, that slump is part of the necessary healing process: The excess capacity gets worked off, prices and wages fall from their excessive boom levels, and only then is the economy ready to recover.This is simply another twisted paragraph . Now it appears that Krugman has slyly changed the debate. He is no longer discussing ABCT, but all "hangover theories", and whatever happened to discussing ABCT's "worldview"?
Except for that last bit about the virtues of recessions, this is not a bad story about investment cycles. Anyone who has watched the ups and downs of, say, Boston's real estate market over the past 20 years can tell you that episodes in which overoptimism and overbuilding are followed by a bleary-eyed morning after are very much a part of real life. But let's ask a seemingly silly question: Why should the ups and downs of investment demand lead to ups and downs in the economy as a whole? Don't say that it's obvious—although investment cycles clearly are associated with economywide recessions and recoveries in practice, a theory is supposed to explain observed correlations, not just assume them. And in fact the key to the Keynesian revolution in economic thought—a revolution that made hangover theory in general and Austrian theory in particular as obsolete as epicycles—was John Maynard Keynes' realization that the crucial question was not why investment demand sometimes declines, but why such declines because(sic)the whole economy to slump.Again we have Krugman using a loaded term, the supposed ABCT view of the "virtue" of recessions. ABCT theorists see recession as the readjustment period necessary from a previous central bank inspired boom. Krugman wants to keep his near-religious “morality play” going, so he uses the word “virtue". As for arguing that Keynes has made ABCT theory obsolete, by simply stating such, that’s as strong an argument as my saying, Henry Hazlitt made Keynes obsolete. But at least there is a book by Hazlitt, The Failure of the New Economics, that did make Keynes obsolete.
Here's the problem: As a matter of simple arithmetic, total spending in the economy is necessarily equal to total income (every sale is also a purchase, and vice versa). So if people decide to spend less on investment goods, doesn't that mean that they must be deciding to spend more on consumption goods—implying that an investment slump should always be accompanied by a corresponding consumption boom? And if so why should there be a rise in unemployment?So much for not discussing ABCT, and to just look at some worldview. Of course, the person that gets laid off does not automatically find a job the next hour, a search for a new job must take place. Further, Keynesian unemployment programs extend the unemployment! Since why should anyone rush to find a job when they are being paid not to work?
Most modern hangover theorists probably don't even realize this is a problem for their story. Nor did those supposedly deep Austrian theorists answer the riddle. The best that von Hayek or Schumpeter could come up with was the vague suggestion that unemployment was a frictional problem created as the economy transferred workers from a bloated investment goods sector back to the production of consumer goods. (Hence their opposition to any attempt to increase demand: This would leave "part of the work of depression undone," since mass unemployment was part of the process of "adapting the structure of production.") But in that case, why doesn't the investment boom—which presumably requires a transfer of workers in the opposite direction—also generate mass unemployment? And anyway, this story bears little resemblance to what actually happens in a recession, when every industry—not just the investment sector—normally contracts.Notice the viciousness, “supposedly deep Austrian theorists “.
Here Krugman wants to become an inflationist. He decries an economy wide demand for cash, but wants to pump money through the banking sector, which benefits debtors at the expense of savers. If it is an economy wide increase in the demand for cash, why not just let the new lower price structure settle on the economy? Why would an increase in the demand for cash cause “good productive capacity to be left idle” unless ABCT is correct?
As is so often the case in economics (or for that matter in any intellectual endeavor), the explanation of how recessions can happen, though arrived at only after an epic intellectual journey, turns out to be extremely simple. A recession happens when, for whatever reason, a large part of the private sector tries to increase its cash reserves at the same time. Yet, for all its simplicity, the insight that a slump is about an excess demand for money makes nonsense of the whole hangover theory. For if the problem is that collectively people want to hold more money than there is in circulation, why not simply increase the supply of money? You may tell me that it's not that simple, that during the previous boom businessmen made bad investments and banks made bad loans. Well, fine. Junk the bad investments and write off the bad loans. Why should this require that perfectly good productive capacity be left idle?
The hangover theory, then, turns out to be intellectually incoherent; nobody has managed to explain why bad investments in the past require the unemployment of good workers in the present. Yet the theory has powerful emotional appeal. Usually that appeal is strongest for conservatives, who can't stand the thought that positive action by governments (let alone—horrors!—printing money) can ever be a good idea. Some libertarians extol the Austrian theory, not because they have really thought that theory through, but because they feel the need for some prestigious alternative to the perceived statist implications of Keynesianism. And some people probably are attracted to Austrianism because they imagine that it devalues the intellectual pretensions of economics professors. But moderates and liberals are not immune to the theory's seductive charms—especially when it gives them a chance to lecture others on their failings.“The hangover theory, then, turns out to be intellectually incoherent,” writes Krugman, This again from a man who says at the start of this article that he is not gong to examine the theory but the “worldview”. It is not the ABCT that is incoherent, it is Krugman’s article.
Few Western commentators have resisted the temptation to turn Asia's economic woes into an occasion for moralizing on the region's past sins. How many articles have you read blaming Japan's current malaise on the excesses of the "bubble economy" of the 1980s—even though that bubble burst almost a decade ago? How many editorials have you seen warning that credit expansion in Korea or Malaysia is a terrible idea, because after all it was excessive credit expansion that created the problem in the first place?
And the Asians—the Japanese in particular—take such strictures seriously. One often hears that Japan is adrift because its politicians refuse to make hard choices, to take on vested interests. The truth is that the Japanese have been remarkably willing to make hard choices, such as raising taxes sharply in 1997. Indeed, they are in trouble partly because they insist on making hard choices, when what the economy really needs is to take the easy way out. The Great Depression happened largely because policy-makers imagined that austerity was the way to fight a
recession; the not-so-great depression that has enveloped much of Asia has been worsened by the same instinct. Keynes had it right: Often, if not always, "it is ideas, not vested interests, that are dangerous for good or evil."