Showing posts with label CarlyleGroup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CarlyleGroup. Show all posts

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Carlyle Says Any Potential IPO Is ‘A Long Way Off’

Carlyle Group, the world’s second- largest private-equity firm, said any potential initial public offering of its shares is “a long way off,” responding to a report that it may seek an IPO in as soon as six months.

“Carlyle has no plans to go public and if we ever do go public, it will be a long way off,” spokesman Christopher Ullman said in an e-mail to Bloomberg.

Taking Carlyle public so we can all take a tiny peek at what they are up to, yeah, that would be a long way off.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Carlyle Group is Prepared for the Stimulus Cash to Hit

It has a $1.15 billion infrastructure fund.

It has a $1.35 billion distressed debt fund.

It is raising $3 billion for bank investments.

(HTpeu)

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Summers: Private Investors Stepping Up to Buy Toxic Assets

Larry Summers, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said in an interveiw on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” scheduled to air this weekend that “There have been many expressions of interest in providing that private capital.”

You can't know exactly what is going on here, unless you know the terms of the deals. Just what is it that private capital(read: Carlyle Group and the like) are expressing interest in? What price? What terms? What guarantees?

This smells like an insider deal from start to finish, with David Rubentein negotiating against Timothy Geithner. Geithner has a better chance in a sumo wrestling event against Mexican finance minister Agustin Carstens.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Game On!!! Carlyle Bid for Florida Bank?

Forget Treasury Secretary Geithner's clueless performance yesterday and move your focus to the 70 degree weather of Florida. We have said the true signal to the bottom in the banking sector is when Carlyle Group starts buying into the sector.

Carlyle has tens of billions on the sidelines ready to pounce on the financial sector when they think the market is at its bottom. They have the analysts on board to know what these banks are truly worth and they have the inside connections to understand what the insider plans are. So when they pounce on a bank, it will be with superior knowledge. Word is they are about to pounce.

The Wall Street dealmaker Wilbur Ross and the Carlyle Group are in talks to take over BankUnited, according to FT.

This is the second report of talks involving the largest bank based in Florida and its parent, BankUnited.

FT quoted unnamed “people familiar with the matter” as sources.

“We are not able to comment,” BankUnited spokeswoman Melissa Gracey said in an e-mail.

If this report is accurate, we fully expect the floodgates to open with Private Equity bidding against each other in the financial sector, and the best signal yet that the worst is over.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

The Revolving Door Between Wall Street and Upper Echelon Government

Bloomberg recaps, the goings on:

Former U.S. Senator Tom Daschle's...$1 million-a-year consulting contract with the New York-based firm [InterMedia Advisors LLC.]highlights how buyout firms often turn to former politicians to court investors and make deals. Former President George H.W. Bush, ex-Treasury Secretary John Snow and former Senate Majority Leader William Frist have all worked for private-equity funds...

Washington-based Carlyle Group helped pioneer the use of former government officials as fund raisers and dealmakers. Former President Bush and ex-U.K. Prime Minister John Major have advised the firm, and its ranks currently include former U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Randal Quarles.

Cerberus Capital Management LP, the New York-based firm that owns Chrysler LLC, counts John Snow as its chairman and former Vice President Dan Quayle as chairman of its international unit.
Not to be forgotten is that French president Nicholas Sarkozy's half brother, Olivier Sarkozy, works alongside Quarles at Carlyle Group as head of Carlyle's Global Financial Services group.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Carlyle Group Co-Founder Explains How the US Is Going to Really Get Out of the Current Economic Mess

The generally loquacious Carlye co-founder, David Rubenstein, is not disappointing reporters in Davos at the World Economic Forum.

Mark Kleinman with the UK's Telegraph details a cluster of Rubenstein observations and beliefs that have been thrown out by Rubenstein to those willing to listen. In the body of comments is this gem that tells it like it is:

The only good things for our country [the US] are that we do have the financial resources to deal with it; we do have, for example, the ability to print money: we probably got into this sooner than the rest of the world and we will probably also get out of it sooner than the rest of the world.
I have no reason to believe that Rubenstein understands Austrian Business Cycle Theory, but he sure has the gut instincts to understand, in an ABCT manner, how the whole thing works. Fed money printing is going to turn the economy around much sooner than most expect.

Of course, what baffles me about Carlyle and other PE groups is the waiting game they are playing before they start putting their sizable amounts of capital to work. No one is going to ring a bell when the trough in this downturn hits, but if all these PE groups start putting there capital to work at the same time, you are going to see a huge spike up in price of PE coveted assets.

We are sufficiently close emough to the bottom, given Fed money printing over recent months, that I believe at this point there is much more danger in being too late than too early.

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Just In Time For the Super Bowl: A Football Analogy

Tyler Cowen refers to the proposed "stimulus" package as a "Hail Mary" football pass. I call it a fumble.

The "Hail Mary" reference implies the offensive team is running a play that has a chance. In fact, the offense has dropped the ball and it is bobbing around on the ground with the likes of Goldman Sachs, the Carlyle Group, the AFL-CIO, the Military-Industrial Complex all diving at it. As for the average American, he was illegally knocked out of the play, is laying out of bounds in pain, but the referees in this game turn out to be "men of delusional integrity" such as Paul Volcker and Colin Powell, who didn't see a thing.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

How Obama Could Shovel Billions to the Carlyle Group...

...ahem, to "save the economy"

The PEU Report has assembled some interesting data, from different sources, on the key elements surrounding the likely infrastructure portion of Obama's coming stimulus package (that Paul Volcker is now suggesting will be in the trillions). Let's put the data together to get a rough idea of how private equity, e.g. the Carlyle Group, may cash in on Obama's plan to save the economy.

1. According to WSJ, a report due out today, by a group including Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and the Carlyle Group says $180 billion of private capital is available for investment in highways, airports and other transportation infrastructure.

2. Such deals offer the prospect of steady, predictable profits for investors.

3. PEU says, Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein bragged of their historical 30% annual return. Carlyle indicated a willingness to take less, but how much?

4. Which means, Carlyle is not going to take much less than 30%, if they can earn that on their funds elsewhere.

5.Business lobbyists also note that Obama supports the creation of a National Infrastructure Bank, which could leverage federal funds by pairing them with private investments.

So let's assume to make things simple that private equity only has $1 billion to invest and that they are willing to take a haircut on their normal returns--and put money into Obama's plan for only 25%.

Given that Obama wants to start a National Infrastructure Bank, the play could go down something like this. Private equity puts $1 billion into infrastructure, with loans (from Obama's new infrastructure bank)of $4 billion on top of this. (Though, no one really knows exactly,at this point, what the insiders are thinking in terms of leverage.) Lets say every dollar put into the project earns 5 cents on the dollar, with 4 to 1 leverage a billion earns $250 million annually--25%.

Now, keep in mind the real money available from private equity is reported to be $180 billion, add leverage at 4 to 1, and you have total money going into infrastructure stimulus alone of $900 billion. With possible annual earnings to private equity of $45 billion. No wonder Volcker is starting to talk trillions. Talk about crowding out the private sector---unless you work for private equity or get your rocks off smelling newly poured asphalt, your standard of living is going to take a dive.

Again, please note, these are just guesstimates, but the play is likely to come down in some manner of what has been outlined here.

As PEU says:

Greed and leverage imploded Wall Street. The big money boys haven't changed. They're looking for new suckers. The taxpayer is it. How bad can and will it get? A clue may come when the President's transparent government makes projected infrastructure profits public.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Insider Says Major Regulatory Changes Coming to Financial Sector

The minutia in government regulatory changes generally helps out favored operators, i.e., the politically connected.

At The Deal's M&A Outlook 2009 conference, David Marchick, managing director of global government and regulatory affairs at the Carlyle Group, spoke about how President-elect Barack Obama's administration will "modernize" the regulatory structure.



With major changes coming, the connected, like Carlyle Group, will have a field day massaging the new regs to their advantage--and, thus, building new inefficiencies into the market.

No Captial Gains Taxes for Private Equity in Japan?

Is Carlyle Group about to make a big footprint in Japan?

Japan may eliminate a 40 percent capital gains tax for most foreign investors, a move the government expects could spur Middle Eastern sovereign funds and private equity firms such as Carlyle Group to pump 10 trillion yen ($110 billion) into its sagging markets, Bloomberg reports.

The trade ministry plans talks over the coming months with buyout firms and state funds from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait to outline proposed changes to its tax regime, said a senior ministry official working on the matter, who declined to be named because details haven’t been finalized, said Bloomberg.

This should be expanded to more than private equity insiders, but competitive tax cuts would be fun.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

The SEC at Work, and Not at Work

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced on Friday settlements of an enforcement action against eight former employees of Fidelity Investments' equity trading desk, for improperly receiving travel, entertainment, and gifts paid for by outside brokers courting business from Fidelity.

"By accepting improper gifts from brokers, these individuals squandered the most important commodity in the financial services industry — investor trust," said George Curtis, the SEC's Deputy Director of Enforcement.

Meanwhile, Bernard Madoff’s investment advisory business, alleged to be a Ponzi scheme that cost investors $50 billion, was never inspected by the SEC after he registered in September 2006, Bloomberg is reporting.

Generally, the SEC scrutinizes a newly registered firm's books in the first year and then checks them at least every five years.

Bloomberg goes on:

Since 2000, he has given at least $100,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and more than $23,000 to the party’s candidates, including Senator Charles Schumer of New York and Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, who leads a charitable foundation that invested with Madoff.
What for?

“You can see where people would pull the shades down over their eyes in terms of recognizing what could be one of the great frauds of our time,” former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Of course, Madoff sat on a committee formed in 2000 by Levitt to advise the agency on new stock-market rules in response to the growth of electronic trading.

Anyone trying to get close to the SEC is doing it for a reason. There are hundreds of SEC rules suggested by real smart guys on Wall Street who do it because it will make them millions. The SEC implements these rules without really having a clue as to who benefits and why. In some, cases there are probably less than a half dozen guys that understand a regulation, but those guys are minting money, courtesy of the SEC.

As for Levitt, since leaving the SEC, he has become senior adviser to the Carlyle Group and a board member of Bloomberg LLC.

The poor schmucks who got busted taking free Red Sox tickets, no advisory board connections, no big time political donations, but also not running $50 billion ponzi schemes.

The SEC is a dangerous agency. It does more harm then good by its power to regulate. It can never change, since it is a government agency that will be beholden to political pressure. It needs to be shut down, today, before it completely ruins the stock market, with its absurd enforcements, while real financial crime and cronyism grows because of the very existence of the SEC.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The Bushies Show Blagojevich How It's Done

There are no tapes of how this deal went down, but my bet is that it went down something like this.

Hank Paulson and The President, back in September:

Paulson: Lehman's a bunch of asssholes, lets take'm down.

The President: Ah, I dunno. My cousin George Herbert Walker works there and my brother, Jeb, is an advisor.

Paulson: Come on , outside of your cousin and your brother, they're assholes. I'll even let your cousin and your brother grab the crown jewel, Neuberger, from Lehman once it is in bankruptcy, and they won't have to put up any cash.

The President: Yeah?

Paulson: Yeah, consider Neuberger a new family jewel.

The President: What if somebody else tries to bid for Neuberger with cash?

Paulson: Fuck em. If anybody tries, we'll send them in an envelope an annonymous post card from Guantanamo saying "Wish you were here" and enclose a picture of former Lehman CEO Dick Fuld. They'll get the message.

Laughter all around.

High fives all around.

Bloomberg reports Wednesday:

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s planned sale of its investment-management division is valued at about $1.2 billion in stock, according to two people familiar with the transaction.

Lehman, in bankruptcy, was forced to deal away Neuberger Berman for no cash last week...

Analysts valued the money-management division at as much as $7 billion earlier this year, before market declines eroded its assets...When the business was valued at around $7 billion in August by Sanford & Bernstein analysts, it initially drew interest from some of the world’s biggest private-equity firms, including Blackstone Group LP and KKR & Co. Neither one ultimately bid...

The Walker [Group also] beat a bid of $2.15 billion for the whole division by private-equity firm Bain Capital LLC.... Carlyle Group [with $40 billion in cash on the sidelines]...weighed a bid... though it didn’t make an offer.

“Neuberger management [Lead by George Herbert Walker] received the deal of a lifetime by obtaining 51 percent of the common stock for no cash, because that will take control of Neuberger away from the Lehman bankruptcy,” said Martin Bienenstock, who heads the restructuring group at the law firm Dewey & LeBoeuf and represents Lehman creditors, today in a telephone interview.

In addition to cousin George Herbert Walker as CEO, GW's brother Jeb will remain an advisor. Plus they both most assuredly received tons of stock, no money down.

Blago, eat your heart out.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Private Equity Sideline Cash

Carlyle Group $40 billion

Bain Capital $20 billion

TPG $30 billion

KKR $16 billion


Keep an eye for when these insiders start to deploy their cash, and where they put it.

(Ht2peu)

Monday, November 24, 2008

Geithner Is the Greatest (Possibly a Genius)....

...says Carlyle Group's Randal Quarles, who will probably soon be asking Geithner for money, when Carlyle starts its bank buying binge.

"He's a very strong choice for some very specific reasons," Quarles told On Wall Street. "He has a wealth of experience at the Treasury and Federal Reserve. He's been intimately involved in dealing with the financial crisis. And before the financial crisis he was very thoughtful and involved in trying to reduce some specific risks in the system."

Before the crisis he was involved in trying to reduce some specific risks in the system? Oh yeah, that worked well.

Quarles has already managed to get Boston Private Financial Holdings Inc. $150 million in capital through the Paulson program.

Ht2peu

Libyan President Muammar al-Gadhafi's Son Honored by Carlyle Group...

at a dinner at the Washington Club.

James A. Baker, III and Frank Carlucci attended, according The Jamahiriya News Agency.

The Carlyle Group never ceases to amaze.

HT2peu

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Carlyle Funded Bank Also Gets Treasury Money

Boston Private Financial Holdings Inc. will get $150 million in capital through the Paulson "Bailout" program. This comes on top of $173 million Boston Private raised in July from private investors, including $75 million from the Carlyle Group.

According to Chris Carey at BailoutSleuth, the total number of institutions that have been selected to receive taxpayer money from Paulson's $250 billion program is now just beyond 70.

Monday, November 10, 2008

American Express Approved as Bank Holding Company

The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced its approval of the applications and notices under sections 3 and 4 of the Bank Holding Company Act by American Express Company and American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc., both of New York, New York, to become bank holding companies.

With The Carlyle Group's Daniel F. Akerson and Yale University president Richard C. Levin on the Board of Directors, Amex is certainly part of the inner circle.

Don't be surprised if the next announcement is $10 billion in "bailout" money to Amex.


“Given the continued volatility in the financial markets, we want to be best positioned to take advantage of the various programs the federal government has introduced or may introduce to support U.S. financial institutions. We will continue to build a larger deposit base to broaden our funding sources. With Federal Reserve oversight we should gain greater access to the capital on offer under the current and any future government-sponsored programs. This decision to become a bank holding company does not fundamentally change American Express' core focus on the payments industry, nor will it require any significant divestitures,” said Kenneth I. Chenault, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, American Express

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Carlyle Group Has $86 Billion on the Sidelines...

...ready to pounce. $86 BILLION.

Carlyle held a conference call with its investors "to demonstrate that we understand what is happening and we are taking good care of our portfolio. We are looking for choice investment opportunities in the midst of this market tumult," according to WaPo.

The firm's co-founders, Bill Conway, Dan D'Aniello and David Rubenstein were all on the call.

The big plays are going to be in the banking sector:

While there may be fewer deals, Carlyle is trolling the bruised financial sector, looking for bargain-basement prices, according to Carlyle insiders who declined to speak for the record because they are not authorized. Carlyle made a relatively smallish deal last July in Boston Private Financial Holdings, Inc.

Look for more, and bigger deals by Carlyle in the financial sector.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Trump Sues The Carlyle Group

In papers filed last week, Donald Trump is suing the Extell Development Company and the Carlyle Group for tortious interference.

Details are vague but it appears that someone, according to Trump, sent a wire of "$16.5 million to the BNP Paribas Bank of London for the purpose of obtaining an unlawful advantage with respect to the purchase" of the former Penn Central rail yards, located in Manhattan. The parcel extends from 59th Street to 72nd Street east of the West Side Highway. Extell and the Carlyle Group jointly purchased the property for $1.76 billion.

Trump claims the Cheng Group sold the property for approximately $1 billion less than what it could have obtained. Cheng Group owned a controlling 70 percent interest in the 77-acre parcel while Trump owned 30 percent.

-RW

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Carlyle Making Noises About Taking The Plunge Into Bank Stocks

So where can you get the best take on the current investment opportunities in bank stocks?Quite possibly in Dubai.

Back in April, Carlyle Group managing director Randal Quarles said that banks were facing more trouble. He sure nailed that.

Now Carlyle co-founder, David Rubenstein, says there are great opportunities in bank stocks. Rubenstein is spreading these words of wisdom in the Middle East at the Super Return private equity conference in Dubai.

Rubenstein said the financial services sector was a very attractive investment opportunity right now.

He said financial institutions like banks and insurance companies seeking to sell assets are probably going to sell them at distressed prices.

Some smaller banks and financial service companies that need equity injections could also be attractive, he said.

"Right now there's an enormous opportunity for private equity to get into the financial service industry and invest in banks, insurance companies, other organizations that are heavily hit ... by the credit crunch," Rubenstein said in a speech at the conference, according to Reuters.

Rubenstein also said that credit-related investments, such as buying debt, remains very attractive.

If you can get into financial stocks at prices close to where these guys cut their private deals, you are likely to have a solid, big upside, investment opportunity.