Paul Krugman links today at the New York Times to an earlier post of mine where I discussed Krugman's confusion about inflation. His reference to me is an attempt to get at Ron Paul. Krugman
writes (The second link is to my post):
Now, Paul is unique among the GOP contenders, or for that matter among politicians in general, in making monetary policy his signature issue. So it’s worth noting that he is among those who have been wrong about everything in this slump.
Here’s a sample from earlier this year: Ron Paul: Gold, Commodity Prices “Big Event” Signaling Economic Collapse. Oh, and for fun: Understanding Why Ron Paul Knows More About Inflation Than Does Paul Krugman.
He then goes to post a screen capture which shows that commodity prices are down 3.63%, since May. He continues:
The second of those articles [my article-RW], by the way, predicts a surge in consumer prices in the second half of 2011. Not according to either the CPI or, for those who are convinced that the government is lying, billion price index, both of which show prices leveling off in the second half. But hey, there are still 17 days left!
Got that? He posts a commodity prices chart and then switches to a discussion of consumer prices. Here's
the data for the increase, year over year, in the consumer price index for each month of this year:
2011-01-01 3.604
2011-02-01 4.708
2011-03-01 5.879
2011-04-01 6.808
2011-05-01 7.484
2011-06-01 7.439
2011-07-01 7.804
2011-08-01 8.200
2011-09-01 8.528
2011-10-01 7.793
Current CPI level 226.763
What you see is a steady increase in the CPI month after month the entire year, except for a minor slowdown in November and even smaller dip in May. As I regularly write in the
EPJ Daily Alert, you never want to look at any specific data point but the trend. Which raises the question, Is Krugman making his entire anti-inflation case, at the consumer level, on the dip in one month's data point?
Or does he have a reading comprehension problem? In my post back in May, which he links to, I specifically call Krugman out on this:
The further problem with Krugman's analysis is that he mixes commodity prices with consumer prices...Headline inflation is about consumer prices not commodity prices. Because Krugman doesn't understand Austrian economics, he tends to aggregate all prices together. For him, all prices in the aggregate move together, which takes the richness out of the data. Austrians don't make this mistake. They understand that when new money enters the system, it enters the capital goods sector and the raw commodities sectors first. Only later, does it works its way to into consumer prices.
It is the inflation from earlier money printing that is now starting to hit the consumer sector, Krugman will never spot this by looking at commodity prices. Krugman has his eye on the wrong part of the ball park. He is watching the grounds crew move off the field and is not watching the stands fill up. He is declaring the game over before it even starts.
Got that? He shows a post of declining
commodity prices, when I am discussing
consumer prices.
But even with commodity prices, which are notoriously volatile, as the Fed prints and prints and prints more money. Prices go up and up, with minor violent pullbacks:
I don't know about Krugman, but I am grateful that price inflation has not increased at a faster pace. As the Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek taught the world is a very complex place, that's why we can never know for sure exactly when or how the massive destructive force of huge money printing will hit the price level in dramatic fashion. When a doctor gives a man dying of cancer 6 months to live, the man should not celebrate he has lived six months and a week. It does not mean he has been cured. It isn't that the Grim Reaper has forgotten about the man. It may take 7 months, 9 months or 11 months, but if the cancer continues to progress, the Grim Reaper will eventually knock all to soon at the door.
Helicopter Ben continues to spread new money as though the banksters need to use it for toilet paper. The price inflationary consequences of this will eventually be severe and make a fool out of Krugman's comment much better than I can in this post.
UPDATE: Relative to the comments a few of view have pointed out that Krugman's reference is only to today's plunge in commodities, which was 3.63%, and not the entire period of his chart which goes back to May. I apparently was giving him more credit than I should have, according to you guys. In error, I simply took the reference off the chart as being for May, which I shouldn't have, but if you think a one day drop in commodities proves anything, them I'll be sure to blast a chart the next time commodities climb in one day by MORE THAN 3.63%, for your amusement and pleasure.
As for my "lying" about the increase in the CPI, I link to the
data, and call it
data, not the percentage change, since I was focusing on absolute increase and not the percentage change. My point was that the absolute price level was increasing regularly. But, hey, if you guys are Krugman followers, I understand how you would only look at the surface of an argument rather than dig into the references that point out what data I was referring to.