Tuesday, July 2, 2013

BREAKING Obamacare Delay for Businesses

The Obama administration left it to a relatively low level Treasury official to announce the blockbuster news that the Obama administration will not begin enforcing employer mandates in the Obamacare law until 2015 - one year later than originally planned.

Mark Mazur, the Assistant Treasury Secretary for Tax Policy, announced on the agency's blog that the administration 'will provide an additional year before the ... mandatory employer and insurer reporting requirements begin.'

The delay in enforcement means that the Administration will not penalize businesses that do not provide health insurance in 2014.  Instead, it will delay enforcement of a major Affordable Care Act requirement that all employers with more than 50 employees provide coverage to their workers until 2015.

At this point the individual mandate remains, meaning individuals must obtain health insurance or face penalties.

HOT: Bolivia leader's jet diverted 'amid Snowden suspicions'

Developing...

UPDATE 1

From the BBC:

Bolivian President Evo Morales's plane has been diverted to Austria amid suspicion that US intelligence leaker Edward Snowden is on board, the foreign minister has said.

David Choquehuanca denied that Mr Snowden was on the plane.

France and Portugal reportedly refused to allow the Bolivia-bound flight to cross their airspace.

UPDATE 2

The Bolivian president had been on a visit to Moscow, where the former CIA contractor has been holed up in an airport transit area for more than a week.

Morales and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had been in Moscow for a meeting of gas-exporting countries.

UPDATE 3


UPDATE 4

The Bolivian Air Focre Plane carrying  Bolivian President Evo Morales has landed in Vienna, Austria,

UPDATE 5

Austrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Schallenberg told The Associated Press that Snowden is not with Morales and that the Bolivian president is spending the night at a Vienna hotel.

"This is a hostile act by the United States State Department which has used various European governments," said Bolivian Defense Minister Ruben Saavedra, who was on the flight.

UPDATE 6

Morales in Vienna, details here.

A Whole Mess From Krugman About Whole Milk and Beyond

Neocon Jennifer Rubin observed in a tweet the other day:

OMG. When you lose an argument to Paul Krugman it's time to take a break

She then linked to a Dylan Byers post that said in part:
In response to Erick Erickson's latest us-versus-them screed against the Acela-corridor...
The rest of America is nervous about where their next meal and paycheck are coming from, how they are going to afford to bail their kids out of crumbling schools, and the price of a gallon of milk and loaf of bread that keep going up though Ben Bernanke tells them there is no inflation.
Paul Krugman drops some Bureau of Labor Statistics data to show that the price of milk and bread haven't actually gone up at all. And asks:
So, how does Erickson know that the prices of bread and milk are soaring? Has he been carefully keeping track? Or is it just fake populism, an attempt to sound like Everyman while actually just whining?
UPDATE (9:43 a.m.): Erickson emails POLITICO:
Paul uses a chart to try to disprove the reality that Americans with small kids actually experience at the grocery store. His problem is he thinks I'm attacking the Democrats and wants to defend them, when the criticism is broader and bipartisan. And if he hung around moms and dads with kids more often he'd hear a lot more real world complaining about bread, milk, and other grocery item prices going up while paychecks are staying the same. Not everything is academic or chartable and sometimes the accuracy of the chart isn't as real to people as the perception they have that their grocery store bills are getting more expensive though their shopping habits haven't changed.
And later adds...
Seriously, Paul's point is correct, but it is an issue of perception of people versus the reality of his chart.  He can certainly go tell people milk prices haven't gone up, but good luck getting them to believe him.
In other words, Erickson got totally mauled by Krugman, but the Rubin observation is what is important here. If you lose a debate to Krugman, it's time to take a break.

First, Erickson was in error focusing in on bread and milk. It allowed Krugman to use, in a post, this chart of milk prices over the last 10 years.


Erickson should have talked about consumer prices over all, which for the same period as  Krugman's milk chart look like this:


Big difference. Never give Krugman the opportunity to use shady data that will distort the overall picture, he will use it.

That said, let's take a second look at  milk prices, which Krugman is using to promote the idea that there is no price inflation. He writes in the post with the milk chart:
But of course the notion that we’re having runaway inflation isn’t based on evidence, and can’t be refuted with evidence.
But, are slowly climbing milk prices evidence that price inflation is not a threat? Far from it, it is another example of Krugman thinking only one or two steps deep, without getting the even deeper full picture.

The fact of the matter is that milk consumption is crashing in America. The US Department of Agriculture reports:
Between the 1970s and 2000s, people have become less apt to drink fluid milk at mealtimes, especially with midday and nighttime meals, reducing the total number of consumption occasions:

• Between surveys in 1977-78 and 2007-08, the share of preadolescent children who did not 
drink fluid milk on a given day rose from 12 percent to 24 percent, while the share that drank 
milk three or more times per day dropped from 31 to 18 percent. 

• Between 1977-78 and 2007-08, the share of adolescents and adults who did not drink fluid milk on a given day rose from 41 percent to 54 percent, while the share that drank milk three or more times per day dropped from 13 to 4 percent. 

Underlying these decreases in consumption frequency are differences in the habit to drink milk between newer and older generations. All else constant (e.g., race and income), succeeding generations of Americans born after the 1930s have consumed fluid milk less often than their preceding generations:

• Americans born in the early 1960s consume fluid milk on 1.1 fewer occasions per day than those born 
before 1930. 

• Americans born in the early 1980s consume fluid milk on 0.3 fewer occasions per day than those born in 
the early 1960s.
This change in milk consumption patterns is having the effect that one would expect, falling milk sales.

 In 2011, total U.S. beverage milk sales were 53 billion pounds - about 6 billion gallons - the lowest level since 1984, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Whole milk beverage sales in 2011 were less than half their level from the early 1980s.

Got that? Milk sales are crashing, and it is across all age groups. Here is a chart from the USDA:


Is it any wonder milk prices are not keeping up with the overall price inflation? It's not that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has steered us through and away from a great milk price inflation, it is that other factors in the milk supply demand equation must be considered. .

A recent WSJ article slams home the point about the change in consumer demand:
In an age of vitamin waters and energy drinks, the decades long decline in U.S. milk consumption has accelerated, worrying dairy farmers, milk processors and grocery chains.[...]So far this year, sales volume at U.S. food retailers for all types of liquid milk, including nondairy varieties, has fallen 2.9% from a year earlier, and total dollar sales have slipped 2.2%, according to Chicago-based market-research firm SymphonyIRI Group Inc. Sales volume for the biggest milk category—skim and low-fat milk—has dropped 4%.
But there is more that Krugman has not considered. From the Dairy Reporter:
 US milk prices continue to decline as cheese inventories remain high.
High cheese inventories mean less demand for milk from cheese makers, thus, putting additional supply on the liquid milk market. Thus, we have less demand for liquid milk and at the same time increasing supply.

It's all  about these supply and demand factors when it comes to milk prices. They have nothing to do with Bernanke.

In fact, the real surprise is how milk prices have not completely collapsed in the face of such supply and demand downward price pressures. That's what really needs to be explained by Krugman. Got  Ben Bernanke newly printed money, Paul?

Glenn Greenwald: New Bombshell Coming

Must Watch: "If You Want A Picture of the Future, Imagine a Boot Stamping on a Human Face---Forever"

JPMorgan: Ten Reasons to Get Overweight Commodities... Now

For the first time since September 2010, JPMorgan  is making an Overweight call on commodities, reports the StreetInsider.

JPMorgan analysts led by Colin Fenton say seasonal forces are reversing, supply channels are thinly stocked and sentiment is universally bearish.

"In a number of commodities, prices have fallen far enough for long enough to force involuntary cuts in production and to spur fresh demand," the analysts said. "Risk is now skewed toward demand growth surprise and production disappointment. WTI crude timespreads have broken out to the strongest levels in 6 years."

JPMorgan's ten reasons for going overweight commodity indices now:

1) Seasonal factors drove the 2Q correction in spot crude oil, and seasonal factors will reverse it.

2) Fresh demand for storable commodities, in response to the steep price corrections.

3) Price-driven, involuntary production cuts in crude oil, copper, and gold.

4) Inflation in production cost economics.

5) Spare capacity is tight and non-economic supply risks are rising.

6) Lagged benefits to commodity demand from rate cuts and other stimulative measures.

7) Stealth shift in US export policy already at work is further linking WTI with international prices.

8) Chinese shift in policy: ‘go green’ does not mean what it means in Seattle. It means go to oil&gas.

9) Stronger USD against what? The DXY does not include the CNY.

10) Global growth and inflation rates will likely soon bottom. Rising values in these rates, even from low bases, provide a favorable economic environment for commodity index total returns.

Pimco Total Return Had $9.9 Billion Withdrawals in June

Imagine what is going to happen when the panic over climbing interest rates really starts.

Bill Gross’s Pimco Total Return Fund, a bond fund and the world’s largest mutual fund, had $9.9 billion in net redemptions last month as investors fled bonds in anticipation of higher interest rates.

The withdrawals left the fund with $268 billion in assets at the end of June, Morningstar said.

Egypt: What a Shame

By, Chris Rossini


When I look at the above image of the protests going on in Egypt, the words "What a shame" come to mind.

What a shame that people still believe the fable that government is there to take care of them, to "represent" them, and to "serve" their interests.

What a shame that people must go to such extraordinary lengths to maybe get some kind of token reform. All the productivity that could have occurred during that same time has now gone down the drain.

What a shame that people (all over the world, not just in Egypt) keep chasing the impossible goal of "making government work." 

Every combination imaginable has been tried: Monarchies, Dual Monarchies, Parliaments, Congresses, Constitutions, Separations of Powers, Socialism, Fascism, Full Democracy, Representative Republic, Military Dictatorship, Bills of Rights...

Yet the verdict is still the same: State Power (in every form) is the enemy of humankind.

Sadly, the human animal is a very slow learner. Humans will touch that hot stove, get massively burned, and then go back to touch that stove again.

Governments, in the 20th century alone, killed hundreds of millions. No other organized group of men could possibly accomplish such a feat...Yet, here we are putting our hands on that stove and hoping for a different outcome.

Meanwhile, Liberty, which is the alternative to this madness, just sits there, patiently waiting for man to fully comprehend and embrace it.

With liberty, majorities don't matter. If you do not wish to associate with a particular person, company, or group, you simply abstain.

We see examples of how this works in our daily lives right now. When was the last time you saw a Jiffy Lube tear gas everyone who refused to stop in? Have you ever seen a Chiropractor driving down the street shooting water cannons at people who refused his services?

Every single person could make a decision that "I'll never go to Jiffy Lube as long as I live," and Jiffy Lube could do nothing about it. Should that decision be made by everyone, it would have no choice but to close its doors.

No pickets....No chants....No fairy tales like "making your voice heard" or "the will of the people". No injuries, arrests or tanks trampling over bodies. Just a simple decision not to interact...not to exchange...not to associate.

What a shame that such a world is just sitting there and waiting.

Let's all do our part to shorten that wait.


Follow @ChrisRossini

The People's Republic of California is Sinking

California lost 73,578 businesses from 4Q11 to 4Q12 to rank last among states. The decline was a  drop of 5.2%.

The Nudge That Will Force Banks to Put More Money Into Treasury Securities

The Federal Reserve is out with a release today announcing that it:
 on Tuesday approved a final rule to help ensure banks maintain strong capital positions that will enable them to continue lending to creditworthy households and businesses even after unforeseen losses and during severe economic downturns[...]
"This framework requires banking organizations to hold more and higher quality capital, which acts as a financial cushion to absorb losses, while reducing the incentive for firms to take excessive risks," Chairman Ben Bernanke said. "With these revisions to our capital rules, banking organizations will be better able to withstand periods of financial stress, thus contributing to the overall health of the U.S. economy."
Translation: The rules will require banks to purchase more government securities, rather than make loans to the private sector. The nudge is in.

In a May 1 report,Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee said  banks, over time, will need to buy as much as $5.7 trillion in "safe" assets including government bonds by 2020 to comply with the
2010 Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S., and capital standards set by the Bank
for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerlandt.

Egypt on The Edge: Mursi Rebuffs Army Ultimatum

Developing...

UPDATE 1

In a defiant 2 a.m. statement, Mursi's office said the president had not been consulted before the armed forces chief-of-staff set a 48-hour deadline for a power-sharing deal and would pursue his own plan for national reconciliation.

UPDATE 2

Reuters reports:

The Islamist leader looked increasingly isolated, with ministers resigning, the liberal opposition refusing to talk to him and the armed forces, backed by millions of protesters in the street, giving him until Wednesday to agree to share power.

UPDATE 3

More from Reuters:

Military sources said troops were preparing to deploy on the streets of Cairo and other cities if necessary to prevent clashes between rival political factions.

Protesters remained encamped overnight in Cairo's central Tahrir Square and protest leaders called for another mass rally later in the day, dubbed a "Tuesday of persistence", to try to force the president out.

Senior Muslim Brotherhood leaders branded the military ultimatum a "coup", backed by a threat that the generals will otherwise impose their own road map for the nation.

The Brotherhood's political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, called on supporters to stage mass counter-demonstrations to "defend constitutional legitimacy and express their refusal of any coup", raising fears of violence.

One FJP leader urged "free revolutionaries" who supported Mursi to prepare for martyrdom

The 21 Places Snowden Has Sent Asylum Requests

Countries with asterisks have already rejected, on various technical grounds, Snowden's request for asylum in their country.

Austria
Bolivia
Brazil
China
Cuba
Ecuador*
Finland*
France
Germany
Iceland
India*
Italy
Ireland*
Netherlands
Nicaragua
Norway
Poland*
Russia
Spain*
Switzerland
Venezuela

The Great Obamacare Intergenerational Swindle

By Bill Frezza

In the sci-fi thriller The Hunger Games, a group of young people are made to compete against each other in a fight for survival. Post-Constitutional America is approaching that scenario—but the victims seem not to have realized it yet.

The intergenerational con game whereby Baby Boomers stick the Millennial Generation with trillions in debt through our gorging on entitlements is about to face its greatest challenge. Will we be able to talk healthy young Americans into buying medical insurance that costs seven times what it would in a free market in order to subsidize our increasingly expensive health care? Or will we have to sic IRS enforcers on them for selfishly taking advantage of the law’s pre-existing condition protections to get care at someone else’s expense in case of serious illness?

It’s a tough sell, but take heart, fellow Boomers. We’ve been preparing our children for community servitude for years. Why else did we feed them a steady diet of social consciousness, while preaching that it takes a village from the day we dumped them in daycare? Now, it’s time for them to pay up.

The math is crucial to maintain the pretense that Obamacare is economically sustainable. There’s no room for error. If the budget projections’ cross-subsidy assumptions are not borne out and Congress then reaches into taxpayers’ pockets to make up the difference, those Tea Party zealots might just tar and feather the Congressmen we’ve so worked hard to buy. Before you know it, oldsters without the means to hire concierge doctors or fly to India for specialty medical procedures will have to wait as long as Canadians for MRIs and hip replacements.

Millennials elected Obama twice on a platform of getting other people to pay their fair share. They buried themselves in college loan debt, believing us when we said that four years of partying their way to a liberal arts degree would open the doors to successful careers. But now, in the midst of the worst economy since Jimmy ‘Malaise’ Carter’s administration, they are struggling to find jobs—any jobs—while already paying top dollar to support bankrupt Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid programs, the benefits of which they will never receive.

Read the rest here.

Yet Again: 'Rand Paul Must Separate Himself From His Father'

This time it is Real Clear Politics advancing the separation:
In order for Rand Paul to broader [sic] his appeal in that regard, he will have to highlight his differences with his father along with personal nuances on hot-button issues like drug decriminalization and foreign aide to Israel.
Real Clear also offers this sad but telling remark from Doug Wead:
“I’ve seen Ron Paul, when quizzed by a liberty person who says, ‘Is Rand going to stick by your principles?’ I’ve seen him kind of roll his eyes and say, ‘We’ll see,’”
RCP also reports:
This venture may prove more difficult for the father to watch than for the more politically dexterous son to execute, Wead suggested.
It's a very good thing that Ron is moving beyond politics, with projects that will advance liberty for a very long time and in a very important way.

The Incoming Head of the American Economic Association is a Climate Freak

In 1993, William Nordhaus, the president-elect of the American Economic Association, wrote in the Journal of Economic Perspectives  that:
climate models resemble large macreconomic models in their ability to answer virtually any question that modelers care to ask. However, the reliability of climate models for global climate changes is unproven, and climate modelers do not expect to be able to forecast regional climates accurately in the foreseeable future.  
I remind you he is talking about macroeconomic models, which failed to warn Long Term Capital Management about its dangerous bond portfolio, which failed to warn bankers and traders about the subprime mortgage crisis and which failed to warn in advance about the Great Recession.

That said, Nordhaus does appear to hold the view that climate models are less accurate than econometric models. He is probably correct. As I pointed out yesterday, serious scientists continue to believe that much more research and analysis must be conducted to understand the impacts of various factors on climate.

Yet, Nordhaus, after seeming to recognize that climate models work about as well as the Fed's housing models, called, in the same paper, for a carbon tax. I repeat, he called for this tax after stating that climate models are not accurate enough to know how carbon and other factors, in this complex witches brew, impacts the climate!

It doesn't appear that his thinking has changed much since the 1993 paper. This October, he has a book coming out: The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warmer World.

According to David Warsh, Nordhaus will  warn in the new book that we "are gambling with the future of the planet, though there is still time to back out by adopting a global system of carbon taxes."

I didn't think the AEA could move in a worse direction than its crazed econometric modeling, under Nordhaus, though, it appears that improper economic methodology will be merged with incomplete climatology research. This will benefit no one but crony climatologist operators and those who provide mad science to justify their hocu pocus.  Should be a total waste and quite an interesting year at the AEA.

Monday, July 1, 2013

The Police State is Not Dog Friendly

Paul Huebl has the details of this questionable arrest and then the shooting of the dog. (Warning pretty graphic. If you are a dog lover, you may want to skip the video.)

The Noose Tightens: New US Sanctions Imposed on Iran to Halt Gold Trading

File under: USG as global bully.

The first American sanctions on Iran since a moderate cleric won the presidential election there on June 14 went into effect on Monday, expanding the number of penalized industries and imposing rules that theoretically could halt all gold and currency trade by the country, reports NYT.

Iran, reports NYT has increasingly traded its oil and gas for gold with countries like Turkey because of earlier financial sanctions that have prevented the Iranians from using conventional bank payment methods. The Iranian authorities are then able to use the gold to buy dollars and euros needed to purchase other needed imports, or to support the faltering value of Iran’s own currency, the rial.

But, now, bullion dealers in other countries who flout the prohibition risk severe American penalties, including expulsion from the United States precious metals market.

The new sanctions, which also penalize Iran’s automotive industry and any foreign bank that conducts “significant transactions” in the rial, are the result of a bill signed by President Obama in January and an executive order he decreed early last month, before the Iranian election.