Friday, March 9, 2012

The Ron Paul Delegate Strategy

Brian Doherty explains:
After Super Tuesday, it’s officially official: Ron Paul won’t go into Tampa with enough delegates to win the presidential nomination.

Still, because of the unbound nature of 197 extant delegates from caucus states, and his campaign’s diligent efforts to ensure that their people rise through the convoluted GOP state convention process, it’s likely that he has many more committed delegates in hand than the media counts.

And as still-excited Paul partisans will tell you: Paul can’t go into Tampa with enough to win on first ballot. As The Daily Beast points out, it seems unlikely that Mitt Romney, clearly in the lead now, can do so either.

This raises speculations about a brokered convention, and Paul’s campaign chair Jesse Benton sees that as hopeful for Ron Paul—in fact, it’s the only hope he’s got to actually get the nomination... the anything-goes fever dreams of a brokered convention, even the bound delegates will eventually become unbound. Which is why Paul’s vaunted delegate strategy isn’t only seeking to get delegates in unbound caucus states. They are working hard on training and educating their people on how to become delegates everywhere and anywhere they can, even if they are bound to vote their state’s voters' preferences for someone else the first time. Benton says that such delegate training and education is “absolutely one of the most important things” they are doing. Various activists across the country have told me of being contacted out of the blue by campaign volunteers or workers and talked into going through the GOP’s rigmarole (which varies state by state) to seek delegate seats.

So as far as Paul himself, his campaign, and a lot of his supporters are concerned, it ain’t over.


  1. Of course we all know that if Paul wins the nomination through this process, the Paul haters are going to claim he stole the nomination or he cheated or whatever. The good thing is, they're loyal Republicans and they'll hold their nose and vote for whatever candidate has an R by his name.

    Sadly though, they'll do the same thing if Romney is the nominee.

  2. My bet is that if there's even the slightest chance Ron Paul can win a brokered convention, the rules will be changed then and there to prevent such a thing from happening.

    1. I'm pretty sure they will try everything they possibly can. Look what they have done to him so far. The media won't even mention him for fear of being fired.

  3. Ouch! I instinctively clicked on the link before making the connection that it was to Reason. Talk about stepping in dog shit.

  4. Problem #1 for Paul:

    A lot of the Caucus states are over with. Yes, there are a few more. However, his chances of picking up delegates gets much much more difficult from here on out.

    Some states still have proportional primaries. So, if he is to pick up delegates he needs to start winning or at least coming in 2nd.

    I think where Paul's plan fails is that they underestimated how long the rest of the field would stay in. Last year this time it was pretty much him and McCain.

    Pauls best shot is to take, or place 2nd in California and New York. 2 states where he may do quite well if he has the $$.

    Problem #2: Fundraising. While he is notorious for raising huge amounts of $, that money will dry up the longer this thing plays out. Most people on his blog sites are already quitting and crying. Most people won't/don't understand the delegate strategy and so a lot of supporters will think the campaign is essentially over. I just read an article where one of his biggest Super PAC's is already weighing their options on donating any more money to the campaign.

    I'm not trying to be negative. I'm only pointing out the obvious.

    As his Senior advisor Doug Wead said, "is it impossible? No. But is it unlikely?, yes".

    Picking up delegates is step #1. However, you have to rely on state conventions playing fair and as we saw in Maine, and last year in Nevada, the state GOP's are on to us and will do anything to make sure Paul's delegates don't get selected to go to Tampa.

  5. Delegates will be bribed big time, new cars, college tuition for the kids, etc just as what happened at the last brokered convention. Hopefully if it goes to the convention, Paul's delegates will have conviction.

    1. Take the car, take the tuition etc. and then betray those bastards by voting for Paul. Give them a healthy dose of "Republican campaign promises", do the exact opposite and see how they like it.

  6. The Clark County Nevada convention is tomorrow. I'll be attending as a Ron Paul delegate. I'll post here how it goes.

  7. RP has done much, much better and would probably be in 2nd in delegates were it not for all the vote fraud by the GOP. Just imagine the press and momentum that wins in Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Alaska, Idaho, Minnesota, North Dakota, etc would have been for fundraising, delegates, and energy?